It seems that investors are inundated with hearing about AI and mega-cap IPOs with business models that look promising out to 2030 and beyond. It’s easy to forget that there is a whole stock market out there with companies the public has known for years and years. While most investors take the passive route of ETFs and mutual funds for long-term investing, many of these “rest of the market” stocks may have some tremendous upside for investors who are willing to buy and hold in areas that have been getting very little love from investors in 2026.
Oggonomics has conducted a screen of companies in the S&P 500 valued in the $10 billion to $500 billion range that have underperformed in 2026. Looking at some battered and out-of-favor companies is often used by contrarian and value investors alike.
As of this time, the S&P 500 was up about 8% so far in 2026 — while 120 of those 500 stocks are down 10% to 50%! Have some of the stocks with the most negative performance overshot realistic long-term investor expectations?
It turns out that some of the down-and-out value stocks even have ended up with 50% (or even more) in implied upside to their consensus analyst price targets. Just keep in mind that those “targets” are far from being guarantees. Investors also need to consider that sentiment and business fundamentals generally need to either stabilize or look as though a recovery could be coming to be rewarded.
Investors often look for value or overly-beaten stocks to try to help boost their returns over time. One serious caveat is never to over-commit or put all of the nest eggs into one basket. That dangerous and even reckless, particularly when sentiment and share price action have soured. And some turnarounds and battered stocks even never manage to recover their former glory days.
Oggonomics does like to chase shares based solely on analyst ratings and price targets. Analysts can be wrong and the underlying companies that are being followed can fall short of expectations. Still, investors often lean into research reports when looking for new ideas and deciding if even the beaten-down stocks offer value ahead.
Investors should never forget that “value” stocks can sometimes be value traps. In fact, this whole screen would be considered companies that have not lived up to expectations in 2026. And with analysts having price targets usually on a 12-month outlook, that implies that higher price targets would not be on track until mid-2027 if those price targets are still realistic at that time.
IS NETFLIX NOW A VALUE STOCK?
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) has been reeling in 2026 after a failed merger. It’s still growing earnings, it has ad partners and a strong cash flow outlook. There also seem to be few near-term catalysts and drivers of upside to their revenue. There are rumors that it could buy Lionsgate, which would be close to free after the $2.8 billion breakup fee it received from Paramount after the Warner Bros. Discovery deal didn’t go in Netflix favor. Streaming media has lots of competition. Still, it’s still growing internationally and has multiple U.S. pricing tiers.
At $72.40, Netflix is down almost 23% YTD and down 43% from a year ago. That’s not what its past growth investors are used to at all, but Netflix also experienced a crash from about $70 in 2021 down to just under $20 in 2022. It seems every U.S. household has a Netflix subscription or access and consumers are lazy when it comes to severing streaming services. With a $300 billion market cap it’s unlikely to experience any rapid recovery, but the consensus analyst price target of $114 implies upside of about 58% from the current price. And now Netflix is valued at only about 20-times current year earnings expectations, which was historically much higher when Netflix was adding millions of new users year in and year out with stronger pricing power.
One likely risk, particularly if earnings disappoint in July, is that analysts could handily cut their price targets even after the stock has fallen. If that occurs, then expecting or hoping for more than 50% upside may have to be “dampened” for long-term investors. Netflix has been here in the investor doghouse before.
A DIFFERENT KIND OF RETAILER
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) may be a retail destination, but it’s not generally a place for city-folks to go. It’s more of a destination for farmers and ranchers, tradesmen and small businesses, and consumers who need items you might not look for in apartments and condos — hence “Life Out Here” in its 2,400+ network of namesake stores. It sells items in lawn and garden, animal feed, clothing, tools and equipment and a whole slew of other items that come up thousands of items to contribute to a market value of $16 billion in market cap — also right at its annual sales levels.
At $30 on last look, Tractor Supply shares are down about 40% just in 2026 and down about 45% from a year ago. The consensus price target of $45 implies upside of nearly 50%. Just do not overlook or ignore that analysts have slashed their price targets even to that level and old price targets of $60 and $70 from 2025 now look and feel quite dated. Still, some long-term investors might be wondering if a 50% drop from its peak is now too much.
Investors looking at the stock after such a big drop might cheer the 3.2% dividend yield as a reward to wait. And value investors may like that it is valued at 15-times earnings as well. After shrinking its outstanding shares via share buybacks, some investors may hope for even more buybacks ahead to increase what have been flat earnings per share. And if investors want a long track record from operations, Tractor Supply Company dates back to the 1930s and has navigated many different business cycles.
UBER AS VALUE – HAIL YES, OR HAIL NO?
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) is still the go-to app for people who need a ride. They also have Uber Eats, and robotaxis have barely even been implemented at any real scale yet. It seems Uber always has some regulatory hurdles and large lawsuits, and some geographic locations seem to always want their human drivers to be considered employees despite the challenges to defining what a dedicated employee is.
At $72 and worth about $145 billion in market cap, Uber’s stock is down 10% YTD and down 20% from a year ago. Its stock has also been stuck in a trading range of $68 to $78 since February. Wall Street is calling for double-digit revenue growth for some time but the $102 consensus analyst price target implies roughly 45% upside.
Whether or not this means Uber will reach all-time highs again remains to be seen. That’s just Wall Street for you though, and some of the old $120 to $140 price targets feel a bit dated. Some value investors may screen for other stocks that have been public for less than a decade, but it currently has a forward P/E ratio of less than 20 and continued double-digit revenue expectations growth for several years.
ZOETIS – VALUE IN PHARMA?
Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) is classified as a drug and pharma stock, but it caters to animal health beyond just a focus on cats, dogs and pets for your home. It also covers livestock and offers parasiticides, vaccines, dermatology, anti-infectives, pain and sedation. The underlying issue here after a weak guidance report is that Zoetis’ stock has been what Gordon Gekko from the 1980s movie Wall Street might refer to as a “dog with fleas.”
This stock was last seen at $78. It has dropped nearly 40% just in 2026 and has lost half its value from a year ago. Wall Street is still calling for single-digit sales growth, and the current share price values the stock at only about 11-times expected earnings after issuing weak guidance caused it to lose an instant 20%-plus of its stock value in May alone. One consideration for income-oriented investors is that the beaten down stock price generates close to a 3% dividend yield at this time.
Zoetis had also earmarked a late-2025 $1.75 billion convertible senior notes offering to buy back stock and enter into “capped call” transactions. The conversion price on those notes was up at $148.20, but that was based on a premium to a much higher price at the time. The consensus analyst price target of $120 implies better than 50% upside if Zoetis can get its stock back up. Just don’t ignore that old loftier price targets have come down handily — JPMorgan slashed its price target down to $130 from $190 while still maintaining an Overweight rating in May alone.
