A setback to President Trump’s administration has come down as President Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa payment requirement has been declared unlawful. It is likely that the Trump administration will appeal the ruling, but many questions remain about the H-B1 visa program as is.
While Oggonomics sees two sides of the coin here, it is important to consider what the impact of the H-1B visa program is for U.S. employers. It is equally important to consider what impact H-1B visa workers can have on U.S. citizens and those already in the U.S. workforce. Let’s just say that it’s complicated.
Oggonomics wants to look at the actual math and many key statistics behind the H-1B visa program. These include:
- How many people are under the H-1B visa program
- What the costs are currently
- What H-1B visa workers actually contribute to the U.S. economy
- What companies led the most recent lottery for visas
- What companies have the most H-1B visa workers in total
It may seem easy to make the case that foreign workers under H-1B visas are filling roles that could have otherwise been filled by U.S. workers holding Green Cards already here or who are U.S. citizens who want and need those positions. The problem in that assessment is that it, in some ways, is no different than saying 2,000 excess job openings in California could instantly be filled by 2,000 excess unemployed workers in New York (or vice versa).
What would a $100,000 fee really mean for employers? Is it too much, or does it curb abuses of the H-1B visa program? And what would actually be a fair number that isn’t viewed as a “tax” in the courts?
This analysis all comes with an admission that, even the statistics side, not every employer’s positions available and every willing worker are perfect and instant matches in a macroeconomic picture under a real-world scenario.
FIRST OFF, THE JUDGE’S RULING
U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin of Massachusetts, an Obama-appointed federal judge (one of the same judges who had previously blocked President Trump’s birthright citizenship executive order), has ruled that the Trump administration does not have the authority to impose a $100,000 payment for employers seeking new H-1B visas. His findings in a long 42-page ruling effectively state that this would have been the same as a tax — and that Congress is the only body with constitutional power to impose the order.
The federal judge’s ruling did cite that, while the Immigration and Nationality Act does give a sitting president broad authority over the legal entry of noncitizens, it does not authorize the president to impose taxes of this sort. In the end, Judge Sorokin declared that this policy was unlawful and he vacated the executive order in its entirety.
A coalition of 20 states had challenged President Trump’s order to effect a new $100,000 payment requirement for companies who file petitions for foreign workers under the H-1B visa program. Companies have used the H-1B visas to hire foreign workers, generally with filing fees between $2,000 and $5,000 to sponsor a new H-1B worker, with ranges varying based on what type of application is filed and also upon the size of the company/employer.
THE ADMINISTRATION’S STANCE
The Trump administration has maintained that many companies have taken advantage of the H-1B visa program to hire foreign workers at lower pay levels than hiring (or maintaining) U.S. workers. President Trump’s September 19, 2025 proclamation said:
The H-1B nonimmigrant visa program was created to bring temporary workers into the United States to perform additive, high-skilled functions, but it has been deliberately exploited to replace, rather than supplement, American workers with lower-paid, lower-skilled labor.
Trump’s announcement also pinpointed that the largest impact has been to workers in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) careers. The proclamation said:
The large-scale replacement of American workers through systemic abuse of the program has undermined both our economic and national security. Some employers, using practices now widely adopted by entire sectors, have abused the H-1B statute and its regulations to artificially suppress wages, resulting in a disadvantageous labor market for American citizens, while at the same time making it more difficult to attract and retain the highest skilled subset of temporary workers, with the largest impact seen in critical science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields.
The administration pointed to some key figures in the original proclamation:
- The number of foreign STEM workers in the United States more than doubled between 2000 and 2019;
- those jobs rose from 1.2 million to almost 2.5 million;
- overall STEM employment has only increased 44.5% during that 2000-2019 period;
- and the foreign share of computer and math occupations rose from 17.7% in 2000 to 26.1% in 2019.
The Trump administration also cited a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study. It pointed out that college graduates in the 22 to 27 year-old bracket from computer science and computer engineering majors face some of the highest unemployment rates in the country — pegged at 6.1% and 7.5%. The proclamation also laid out how certain technology companies were approved for H-B1 workers, only to then announce a higher number of layoffs shortly after those approvals.
Is it surprising that American workers have alleged that companies forced U.S. employees to train foreign workers who were ultimately replacing their jobs? Or what about those same workers having to sign nondisclosure agreements as a condition of their severance packages? Let’s see what some outsiders and insiders have already addressed.
WHAT OUTSIDERS SAY
President Trump’s 2025 proclamation pointed out that many American tech companies have laid off qualified and highly skilled American workers, while simultaneously hiring thousands of H-1B workers. There are some other statistics and points that should be considered at the same time.
That National Bureau of Economic Research posted a 2017 study pointed that the impact of foreign workers in the U.S. negatively impacted U.S. workers with lower pay and worse employment. That study also pointed out the direct economic impact, saving companies money, impacting output and even the benefit to consumers from lower costs:
In the absence of immigration, wages for U.S. computer scientists would have been 2.6% to 5.1% higher and employment in computer science for US workers would have been 6.1% to 10.8% higher in 2001. On the other hand, complements in production benefited substantially from immigration, and immigration also lowered prices and raised the output of IT goods by between 1.9% and 2.5%, thus benefiting consumers.
ZDNET also published in 2019 a post signaling whether or not Indian IT companies been gouging H-1B workers with low wages? That report shows multiple views as well, but showed a critical view that Indian IT-workers have “displaced American workers because they are willing to work for rock-bottom rates…”
THE ACTUAL H-1B PROGRAM
The Department of Labor extensively outlines what is qualified under the H-1B program. It specifically pertains to “hire nonimmigrant aliens as workers in specialty occupations or as fashion models of distinguished merit and ability… that requires the application of a body of highly specialized knowledge and the attainment of at least a bachelor’s degree or its equivalent… to help employers who cannot otherwise obtain needed business skills and abilities from the U.S. workforce…”
The Labor Department also outlines protections for U.S. and foreign workers’ wages:
The law establishes certain standards in order to protect similarly employed U.S. workers from being adversely affected by the employment of the nonimmigrant workers, as well as to protect the H-1B nonimmigrant workers. Employers must attest to the Department of Labor that they will pay wages to the H-1B nonimmigrant workers that are at least equal to the actual wage paid by the employer to other workers with similar experience and qualifications for the job in question, or the prevailing wage for the occupation in the area of intended employment – whichever is greater.
SOME STATS FOR H-1B VISAS
An H-1B visa is a U.S. nonimmigrant work visa that allows foreign professionals in specialty occupations to seek temporary employment for up to 6 years (please see clarifications below). This program is also viewed a path toward to permanent residency (Green Card).
The H-1B visa program allows for up to 85,000 slots each year. Of those, there are 20,000 allocated for graduate students.
One figure from Lighthouse estimated that Trump’s $100K fee could reduce new H-1B permits by roughly 5,500 per month. Lighthouse further showed some statistics are hard to measure us USCIS data is not real-time and includes the H-4 dependent vis holders (spouses and children).
The report showed that approximately 730,000 H-1B workers currently reside in the U.S, plus approximately 550,000 dependents — totaling roughly 1.3 million residents. It further showed:
- highest concentrations of H-1B visa workers are California and New York;
- they contribute an estimated $86 billion annually to the U.S. economy;
- they pay $24 billion in federal taxes;
- and they contribute $11 billion to state and local tax revenues.
It also shows the highest numbers of approvals by country of origin:
- India (283,397)
- China (46,680)
- Philippines (5,248)
- Canada (4,222)
- South Korea (3,983)
A gender breakdown showed that the H-1B approval recipients were 70% male and 30% female, mirroring global STEM education trends. And here is a breakdown of the job categories:
- Computer-Related Occupations (64% or 255,250 workers)
- Architecture & Engineering (10%)
- Education & Higher Education (6%)
- Healthcare (4%)
The appointments are made by a lottery system. In Fiscal Year 2025, USCIS received about 442,000 registrations for the maximum 85,000 slots. The median salary for computer-related H-1B positions was projected to be $123,600 as the prevailing wage requirements that U.S. employers must meet.
Business Insider reported in February-2025 showed numbers of H-1B visa workers solely at U.S. financial firms.
The top employers which secured the most approved H-1B petitions for initial employment in FY-2024 are as follows:
- Amazon (3,871)
- Cognizant (2,837)
- Infosys (2,504)
- TCS (1,452)
- IBM (1,348)
- Microsoft (1,264)
- HCL America (1,248)
- Google (1,058)
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) report from November 2025 was based on USCIS data showing the list of continuing employment numbers by company, as follows:
- Amazon (14,532)
- TCS (5,293)
- Microsoft (4,863)
- Meta Platforms (4,740)
- Apple (4,610)
- Google (4,509)
- IBM (3,810)
- Infosys (3,480)
- Cognizant (3,190)
- HCL America (2,820)
- Deloitte (2,430)
- Intel (2,120)
- Accenture (1,950)
- Walmart (1,830)
- Wipro (1,620)
- Goldman Sachs (1,510)
- Capgemini (1,420)
- LTIMindtree (1,310)
- Ernst & Young (1,240)
- JPMorgan Chase (1,020)
LIMITATIONS TO DATA
Oggonomics concludes that much of the data presented by direct and outside sources, even using the most recent data, has slight variations and also has a limited look-back rather than representing 100% real-time data. The positions were noted as a duration of up to 6 years earlier on, with many at a 3-year limit before granting extensions.
The data used has been deemed to be reliable and most figures have come from sources generally not to be solely one-sided. That said, there are some pro-and-con citations herein because the situation regarding H-1B visas is complicated in many ways — and more ways than be covered in a single report.
