International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) finds itself in yet another position where its stock is riddled with problems. When it entered the earnings confessional in mid-July, it fell from $290 to $217 for a massive drop of more than 25% in just the first trading day for a loss of $67 billion in market capitalization. And with the stock down an additional 6.5% to $203 now that the formal earnings and guidance are out, there remains very little excitement from investors.
One issue which may have been neglected or discounted is that IBM’s promises in quantum computing could rekindle investor interest in other quantum computing stocks. So far, that interest has not translated into broader gains in smaller quantum computing rivals. But what about looking out into 2027?
It would require being a grand optimist to make a positive case here for IBM other its shares now being one-third cheaper than at the start of July. Positives for other stocks may also not be what IBM needs to boost its own stock in the future. It still has to leave investors wondering if there are other opportunities that may be rekindled in quantum computing. That said, and it’s far from riskless, IBM does actually have to deliver on its quantum promises. And the secondary quantum computing stocks have to continue making progress on their own quantum efforts for investors to get excited again.
IBM’s pre-release of revenues showed significant shortfalls at -7% in Infrastructure due to widespread capital spending reprioritization from its clients. As a whole entity, IBM now projects only 4% to 5% total revenue growth for the company in 2026. So, where does this leave the quantum computing space as a whole or ex-IBM?
Here was where IBM was positive about quantum computing in its mid-July pre-earnings confession:
Finally, quantum computing is no longer decades away, it is upon us, and we are investing aggressively. Recently, with the U.S. Department of Commerce, we announced a letter of intent to build Anderon, the world’s first pure-play quantum wafer foundry supported by $1 billion in CHIPS incentives provided by the DoC and a $1 billion cash contribution by IBM. Shortly after that, we disclosed plans to invest more than $10 billion in quantum over the next five years, spanning R&D, capex, manufacturing scaling, M&A and ecosystem expansion. We remain on track to deliver the first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029.
That’s a $10 billion commitment for five year and effectively a promise to deliver this first “large-scale fault-tolerant” quantum computer by 2029. And the momentum behind quantum with the Commerce Department pledge had previously helped push IBM’s stock to all-time high of $325 at the start of June. That was then, and the “now” looks much less ambitious for “Big Blue” shares.
The July 14 drop of over 25% in IBM brought gains for the smaller rival quantum computing stocks of $IONQ, $RGTI and $QBTS; and more recent IPOs of “QNT and $IQMX may be worth a review. These are all much smaller stocks compared to IBM, and they don’t have vast other billions in revenues to help fund their quantum ambitions like IBM has. The good news — they all have cash to fund spending for the time being.
Now it’s time to look under the hood here.
THE ‘BIG’ THREE QUANTUM STOCKS
Oggonomics has featured brief trading data on the three independent quantum computing stocks. They are featured merely in alphabetical order, showing recent trading prices, share performance around IBM’s announcement, and information on Wall Street analysts and revenue projections have also been provided.
D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) -34% YTD
D-Wave Quantum shares rose nearly 2% to $18.95 on July 14 on IBM’s quantum forecasts, but its stock has since slid 9% to $17.20. D-Wave has about $588 million in cash and a market cap of $6.4 billion. Wall Street has revenue projections of $42.8 million in 2026 and $85.8 million in 2027. D-Wava analysts have mostly “Buy” ratings and price targets from calls in June were between $35 and $43.
IonQ (IONQ) stock -23% YTD
IonQ shares rose 1% to $39.39 on July 14, but it is down 13% at $34.25 since that time. And despite massive losses and low revenues, it has a $12.7 billion market cap versus 2026 revenue expectations of $267.5 million and $388 million for 2027. IonQ has roughly $2 billion in cash.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock -32% YTD
Rigetti Computing closed up almost 5% higher at $16.11 on the July 14 date of IBM’s first confessional period. Its $14.90 share price was last seen down over 7% since that time. Rigetti has a $5 billion market cap after a recent $100 million agreement with the U.S. Commerce Department and cash reserves of $569 million. Wall Street sees revenues ahead of $23.6 million in 2026 and $44.5 million in 2027. Rigetti mostly has “Buy” ratings and price targets from $27 to $40.
TWO NEWER QUANTUM STOCK ‘GIANTS’
Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) is a recent spin-off from Honeywell and the post-IPO market has a lower free float of shares and a lack of longer-term trading history. It priced at $60, but its $56 current share price has a market cap of $14.6 billion. Quantinuum’s post-IPO trading range is $50.10-$86.79. Most analysts have Buy ratings with target prices of $90 to $100 (outliers – Morgan Stanley Equal Weight and $78 target and Rosenblatt at Buy and $155 target). Wall Street projects revenues of $26.5 million in 2026 and $44.3 million in 2027.
IQM Quantum Computers (IQMX) is a recent SPAC-IPO in full-stack superconducting quantum computers. While its shares rose 7.3% to $12.56 on IBM’s July 14 quantum disclosure date, its more recent $10.80 price is down from the post-SPC IPO high of $15. It is shown to have a $2.2 billion market cap. The company’s pro forma cash position was 337 million euros as of its IPO date. It also claimed to have sold 23 quantum computers worldwide, more than any quantum manufacturer. The Finland-based company also employs more than 400 people in Europe, Asia, and North America.
QUANTUM RISKS
This reporting is for informational purposes only. None of the data provided is intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any of these stocks or others. Oggonomics does not issue formal investment recommendations or price targets of its own. These companies have limited operating histories and should all be considered much riskier than traditional stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. In short, you are completely on your own in deciding which (or if any) quantum computing stocks are a good fit for your own portfolio or if they should be avoided entirely.
There are of course some serious concerns that any prudent investors should consider in quantum computing stocks and other risky sectors like this:
- shares all down significantly from 2025/2026 highs;
- nosebleed valuations on multiples of revenues;
- cash erosion will likely continue as revenues do not cover spending;
- virtually no insider buying of shares;
- analysts have high target prices, but many targets have been cut much lower from highs;
- regulation can limit opportunities, and a lack of regulation can come with unintended outcomes;
- foreign competitors have their own quantum ambitions;
- solving 1 million Reliable Quantum Operations Per Second (rQOPS) as a definition of a quantum supercomputer could prove unrealistic;
- AND FINALLY, you would need a quantum computer to identify the additional endless quantum computing sector risks…
