As 2024 is fading rapidly into 2025, many expectations for the new year have already changed. The election is over, the Trump regime has many new plans, and investors are positioning their investment portfolios for 2025 and beyond. The coming trends in government spending cuts and tariffs, dealing with perhaps higher interest rates, and regulatory changes are all being factored into Wall Street’s major strategist forecasts for the coming year. The S&P 500 500 was up 27.8% YTD on last look, with gains of 17.5% for the Dow and 29.5% for the NASDAQ-100.
Oggonomics has updated the 2025 price targets from major brokerage firms over the last month since the election. Multiple firms and strategists are now calling for stronger gains in the S&P 500 Index in the coming year. Investors need to keep in mind that the S&P 500 has crossed above the key 6,000 benchmark to 6,084 on last look. That figure is also up 5.3% since election day.
Wall Street is expecting that to be even higher by 8% to 10% by the end of 2025. Oggonomics has tracked forecast changes from the likes of Barclays, BofA, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS and others. Independent market forecasters have also been included, along with longer-term views if applicable.
WALL STREET’s TARGETS FOR 2025
Oggonomics always reminds its readers that no single analyst call (same for strategists) should be used as the sole basis in deciding to buy or sell stocks. That said, every major brokerage firm has now called for the gains of 2024 to continue into 2025. Please keep in mind that their views come with absolutely no guarantees and assurances of gains. No strategist ever predicts that gains ahead will not experience some bumps along the way. And any adverse events or major developments can cause strategists to instantly and significantly change their expectations.
Here are the major firms’ strategist targets for the S&P 500 in 2025.
Barclays — Strategist Venu Krishna raised the 2025 target for the S&P 500 to 6,600 from 6,500. The firm’s rationale is based upon a resilient U.S. macroeconomic backdrop, a strong consumer, “normalized” inflation levels, and an ongoing earnings leadership from the big tech leaders that dominate the index.
BMO Capital Markets — Brian Belski issued a 6,700 target for the S&P 500, noting that earnings growth is likely understated.
BofA Securities — Savita Subramanian set her S&P 500 target to 6,666 by the end of 2025. The 11% gain (at the time) is not expected in a straight-line gain as volatility is expected to reappear and give investors a chance to buy in at lower levels. Top calls are for Financials, Discretionary, Materials, Real Estate, and Utilities with healthy cash return levels — and with the rally broadening out to “the other 493” stocks outside of the Magnificent 7. See why Chevron is its top pick for 2025.
Deutsche Bank — Binky Chadha, chief global strategist, sees the S&P 500 at 7,000 by the end of 2025, up about 17% from the levels then.
Evercore ISI — Strategist Julian Emanuel set a 6,600 target for the S&P 500 by the middle of 2025. The view is calling this bull market “an infant” and the market is in a digestion phase after the initial election gains.
Goldman Sachs — David Kostin raised his S&P 500 target to 6,500 from 6,300 heading in November. With event-risks high, his take is that a friendlier fiscal policy or a more dovish Federal Reserve could boost stocks even further. See Goldman’s top 7 Conviction Picks for 2025.
Jefferies – Had only a 6,000 target for 2025 as of November, but the positive comments pointed to an upside scenario of 6,800 if supported by further investor sentiment and rate cuts. The downside scenario was set at 4,700 if the macro themes do not pan out.
JPMorgan — Strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has switched from bear to bull after the firm’s old S&P 500 price target of 4,200 for 2024 proved to be quite wrong. Now his new 2025 target for the S&P 500 is 6,500. The reasons for the switch are American exceptionalism, AI growth, and central banks continuing to ease.
Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson issued a note calling that the S&P 500 could hit 6,500 in 2025. His take is stronger earnings growth, a better business cycle and even hopes still in place for more Fed rate cuts ahead. His optimistic scenario goes as high as 7,400 and his negative scenario would be a drop down to 4,600.
ALSO READ: WHY SALESFORCE MAY BE TOP TECH PICK FOR 2025
RBC Capital Markets — Head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina sees the S&P 500 hitting 6,600 by year-end. Using a quantitative approach of valuations, economic sentiment, earnings yield gaps and political expectations, and the 6,600 target is the median forecast under different expectations. That said, the report also cautioned that RBC expects a 5% to 10% market correction along the way.
UBS — Strategist Jason Draho noted that the election results pulled forward some gains, set its 2025 target for the S&P 500 to 6,400 from a prior 6,000 target but that was in October. UBS adjusted its 2024 target at 5,850 from a prior 5,600; and the firm’s original 5,4000 target for 2024 was the highest among the largest brokerages at the time. This new forecast was based on 3.7% GDP growth next year, as well as earnings growth for stocks and improving economic conditions being supported by its monetary policy outlook.
ADDITIONAL STRATEGISTS CALLING FOR GAINS
Macro Risk Advisors has issued a level of 7,700 for the S&P 500 next year.
Yardini Research (Ed Yardeni) has a 7,000 target for the S&P 500 at 7,000 for 2025. He also now issued a call for the S&P 500 to hit 10,000 by 2030.
DISCLAIMER
Oggonomics has pulled each strategist call as each firm’s forecast by name. These targets and views are from those firms named and are not necessarily the view of Oggonomics. Each investor is responsible for their own decisions to buy or sell securities and those decisions should be made with the help of a financial advisor.
