The rise of the big-box retailers and wholesale retailers has been monumental. The leaders in this space have shown significant growth for investors by offering value to their members. Wall Street and Main Street just cannot get enough. BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BJ) often gets overlooked or forgotten by many investors. That may change in 2025 if a report from TD Cowen proves correct.
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is the largest retailer in the world. It has Sam’s Club and larger and smaller format stores. Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) has been a fast-grower and its membership price hike went unnoticed by members other than helping its share price even further.
Here is where things get dicey in evaluating these stocks looking into 2025 and beyond. Remember that Wall Street investors care about what will happen ahead rather than what happened in the prior year. Walmart’s stock was last seen up 80% so far in 2024, and Costco’s stock was last seen up 50% YTD. BJ’s shares were last seen up 49% YTD.
The analysts at TD Cowen are calling BJ’s Wholesale Club out as the new kid on the block (the wholesale club block that is). The firm sees some attractive differences that may set its stock to be in a better position than Walmart and Costco for the coming year.
Most analysts and strategists may have earnings and sales forecasts for years ahead, but their price targets are generally a 12-month outlook. One key issue is that BJ’s has only about 250 clubs at the present time. This means many consumers never even see the stores. TD Cowen believes BJ’s can add over 50 more locations over the next 5-year period.
With unit expansion and continued growth in comparable store sales, TD Cowen is calling for low double-digit percentage growth ahead. Another difference for BJ’s versus Costco and Sam’s is that the firm sees it working more like a traditional grocery stop due to smaller packaging sizes, a full-service deli inside the stores and a wider selection of unique products in many categories.
BJ’s also joined in on the membership price hike game for the first price-hike in about 7 years. The base member fee went to $60 from $55 (per year) and the Club+ membership fee went to $120 from $110. It also raised guidance along with earnings in November.
TD Cowen was not the only price target hike (Buy, $to $110 from $95) in November. Here were some other analyst target hikes that were seen:
- BofA (Buy) to $100 from $90
- Jefferies (Buy) to $110 from $105
- Morgan Stanley (Equal-Weight) to $98 from $90
- Roth MKM (Neutral) to $87 from $75
- UBS (Buy) to $108 from $102
BJ’s trades at closer to 22-times forward earnings with a mere $13 billion market cap. Its corporate website shows that it has 247 clubs, 182 gas stations, 7.5 million members and $20 billion in annual revenues. Its valuation is more in-line with the market than the forward multiples of 50 for Costco ($440 billion market cap) and 33 for Walmart ($765 billion market cap). The consensus price target from Finviz was listed as $99.40, which is more or less already in-line with its $99 share price.
The views and targets in this report were from TD Cowen and the other firms named. Oggonomics does not maintain any formal rating or price target for BJ’s Wholesale nor on Costco and Walmart.
