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Apple’s iPhone 17 Refresh Cycle Drives Strategic Calls Ahead of Earnings

Jon Ogg by Jon Ogg
October 20, 2025
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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has seen multiple favorable analyst reports ahead of earnings. Most reports are signaling above-consensus sales of the newest iPhone (particularly for the light-weight “Air” model”) despite a hold on many of the phone’s would-be AI features. The iPhone maker is set to release its Fiscal Year 2025 Q4/Annual earnings report on Thursday, October 30, 2025 after the close of trading.

Oggonomics wanted to offer a concise view of many of these reports. While not all of the calls are upgrades these reports have price targets that were above the Apple share price at that time.

Evercore ISI added Apple to its “Strategic outperform List” on October 20. The firm maintained an Outperform rating on Apple with a $290 price target, noting the company is positioned to report upside to its quarterly consensus estimates and could guide higher for the December quarter as well. Evercore ISI’s positive view is that iPhone data points suggest that this iPhone refresh cycle appears better than average as lead times for the base iPhone 17 are running stronger than October 2024 refresh levels with a strong demand environment. Evercore had just raised its target to $290 from $260 as recently as September 26.

Melius Research was also positive on October 20, noting that Apple’s new Siri 2.0 coming early in 2017 could bring new categories like home hub and robots that are not yet factored into analyst financial models. These could cushion Apple’s earnings and revenues and the iPhone upgrades could be material drivers of strength for years, as can higher average selling prices and higher margins, with Apple potentially hitting $10 per share in earnings power sooner than expected.

Loop Capital upgraded Apple to Buy from Hold on October 20, also raising its price target up to $315 from $226 in the call. The firm used its own supply chain checks and now expects that iPhone shipments should expand through 2027 in this refresh and design cycle. It even noted material upside over consensus iPhone estimates through 2027 and that it sees that Apple could be at the start of a 3-year streak of consecutive record iPhone shipments.

On October 15, BofA Securities reiterated its Buy rating and its $270 price objective. The call was based on Pro and Pro Max lead times looking stable and with iPhone 17 ship dates remaining elevated versus prior years. The firm also cited higher growth in services revenue, higher margins from more internally developed chips, maintaining capital returns, more AI features to drive higher institutional ownership, and legal risks being manageable.

CFRA reiterated its Buy rating on October 18 with a $280 price target, noting higher margins as its shifts from dependence on Qualcomm chips, continued sales growth, a return to growth in China, as well as stronger services revenues.

Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on October 2 and raised its target to $298 from $240. The firm noted that the iPhone 17 cycle is modestly stronger than the firm originally expected, even though strategically the market has already priced this in. Morgan Stanley sees a positive bias to trailing 12-month estimates and that early drivers of iPhone 17 strength have the firm more excited about the coming iPhone 18 cycle (with more anticipated AI features).

Here are some additional analyst summaries on Apple within the last month ahead of earnings, listed by date:

  • 10/01 – Seaport Global started Apple as Buy with a $310 price target
  • 09/22 – Wedbush Securities reiterated Outperform and raised its target to $310 from $270
  • 09/19 – JPMorgan reiterated Overweight and raised its target to $280 from $255

Apple was last seen trading up 4% at $$263 mid-day in Monday’s trading session. Its stock was still lagging the broader market with a gain of just 5% YTD and a gain of about 13% over the last year.

Tags: AAPLanalyst upgradesiPhone
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