Investors have been having a hard time in 2025. The initial “Trump Bump” has so far been beaten down by tariff woes, trade war risks, government spending cuts and an international investor flight that all point to greater recession risks. Wall Street’s mood has soured. The initial calls for 10%-plus gains for the S&P 500 in 2025 have in fact seen the market sell off by almost 10% — and the market also gave up all of its post-election gains as well. So, what to do? Where is it safe?
Long-term investors know that they have to stay the course even when markets are facing turmoil. And strategic investors are going to always invest where they think their capital will grow the most or be the safest. Is it possible that a Trump 2.0 market and economy targeting retaliatory tariffs and massive spending cuts could still resemble Trump’s first year in office in 2017?
Many investors look for patterns to repeat themselves. The year 2025 doesn’t feel the same as 2017, but some investors should at least consider if the big winners under Trump 1.0 can repeat (or not) under Trump 2.0. Some can, others maybe not so much.
Oggonomics did initially see some similarities from the 2016/2017 period to 2024/2025. The S&P 500 rose 9.5% in 2016 and then rose 19.5% in 2017. The most blaring difference in 2025 is that the S&P 500 had already risen by more than 20% in each of the prior two years. Those higher valuations expanded more than the economy expanded — and rising recession risks tend to not favor stocks with high valuations.
Inflation had already added more than 20% to the average cost of goods in the prior 4 years alone. The government budget was also already set for 2025 with strong deficits. Even the Elon Musk and DOGE targets are having a hard time making a massive dent in government spending. And deficit spending on top of higher interest rates only make the massive $36-plus trillion total government deficit keep rising.
Oggonomics has reviewed the top 20 performing stocks of 2017. There are some similarities in 2025 for some of the companies, but others seem to be facing different fundamentals entirely even as taxes and tariffs were on the docket back in 2017. And some of the best performing stocks from 2017 have even been acquired by larger companies.
Oggonomics evaluated each stock looked at the start of 2025. The previous consensus analyst price target data from Finviz was included, but on top of the gains from 2017 the year-to-date price changes are also being featured.
Please note that of the data offered in this report is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell these stocks. As always, there are absolutely no assurances that performance of any prior year will be repeated in a future year. Oggonomics also maintains no formal ratings or price targets on the companies mentioned.
Here is a look at how the top 20 performing stocks of the S&P 500 look now versus 2017.
#1 Align Technology (NASDAQ: ALGN) up 132% in 2017… Down 20% YTD!
Will Invisalign clear braces get more business as work from home trends have been ending? But on he flip side, will people still need to and want to fix their crooked teeth?
#2 NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) up 121% in 2017… UP 9% YTD!
Will the electricity producer and seller win from continued AI-data center demand? NRG is one of the few winners so far in 2025.
#3 First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) up 114% in 2017…. Down 29% YTD!
Trump has exited the climate accord and is not a fan of solar-only in a “drill baby drill” economic plan. Will tariffs help or hurt First Solar? It was down over 4% on Trump’s first trading day; and it had fallen from $215.89 on election day to $194.02 the very next day. Now it was at $125 on last look.
#4 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) up 104% in 2017… Up 22% YTD!
Vertex shares screamed higher in 2017 after its cystic fibrosis drugs were approved for more patients. With governmental efforts to cut costs, will they press for price cuts ahead now that it’s been on the market for over a decade? The stock was closer to $166 in 2017, and now it is closer to $500!
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#5 Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) up 101% in 2017… Down 17% YTD!
Micron may have its role in AI but most of Wall Street still thinks of it as a DRAM and flash memory maker. That said, many operations are domestic and we know the “America First!” attitude should seem to favor companies based in the U.S. with more operations in the U.S. That said, chips are still dominated by Asia and every semiconductor maker faces risks with tariffs and a potential trade war regardless of what the daily news flow looks like. Micron’s stock was closer to $41 at the end of 2017 versus $70 at the present time.
#6 Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) up 94% in 2017… Down 14% YTD!
Will Wynn’s China and Asia exposure help or hurt the company under a Trump regime versus a Biden regime? That depends on how China and Asia’s demand for gambling is. And American gambling after inflation bit into consumers’ wallets.
#7 Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) up 89% in 2017… Down 11% YTD!
Boeing has always had advanced defense operations, but the stock only reacts to commercial plane news and tariff news at the start of 2025. Its stock was already only about half the value at the start of 2025 versus the end of 2017. It no longer even pays a dividend to conserve cash. And China just singled it out as a supplier to avoid for Chinese airlines.
#8 PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) up 87% in 2017… Down 28% YTD!
PayPal was down almost 2% to $90 on Trump’s first trading day of 2025 versus a consensus price target of almost $96. A key difference now is that it was a recent spin-off from eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) back in 2015 and was a much faster-growth company. Even as a fintech player and even in a crypto-loving world, revenue was expected to grow just 6.5% in 2024 and slow to 5.7% revenue growth in 2025. PayPal was closer to a $40 stock at the start of 2017.
#9 D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) up 86% in 2017… Down 15% YTD!
Trump wants homes to be more affordable, but everyone who buys a home loves for the home value to rise over time. At $147 earlier in this year, its consensus analyst price target had been closer to $174. And while this stock was under $120 on last look, it was closer to being a $50 stock at the end of 2017.
#10 NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) up 83% in 2017… Down 23% YTD!
Nvidia needs no introduction as the leader of Artificial Intelligence. The difference for NVIDIA in 2025 is that its market in China is being directly targeted along with other chip companies with large markets in China. AI wasn’t even the main driver in 2017, but NVIDIA was deep into video game graphics chips and mining chips back then. Its efforts for data centers were still small compared to now.
#11 PulteGroup up 82% in 2017…
With a gain that was just 4% shy of D.R. Horton for 2017, what more is there to say?
#12 Centene Corporation (NYSE: CNC) up 81% in 2017… Up 4% YTD!
Selling insurance to under-insured and lower-income plans on Medicaid, Medicare and the exchanges can be risky but it was a tailwind in 2017. In November of last year, the stock fell to $62.56 from $64.80 the first day reaction to Trump’s win over Kamala. Wall Street’s consensus analyst price target was closer to $78 at the start of 2025. This was roughly a $50 stock at the end of Trump’s first year in 2017.
#13 Activision Blizzard (formerly ATVI) was up 79% in 2017…
Activision Blizzard has since been acquired by Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). Nothing more to say.
#14 Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) up 78% in 2017… Down 34% YTD!
Alcoa rose with aluminum prices in 2017 and around the Arconic spin-off, but the “Trump Bump” was followed with a big sell-off in 2025. Will tariff and trade war fears come with higher or lower aluminum prices ahead?
#15 Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) up 77% in 2017… Down 9% YTD!
Lam had to ditch its KLA merger but still rose 77% in 2017. As a leader in semiconductor equipment it follows many of the cyclical chip sector trends. While big trends may help reduce the seasonality of its business, the big gains from the end of 2024 have now seen the stock slump with tech stocks in 2025.
#16 Red Hat (former RHT ticker) was up 76% in 2017.
Red Hat was about Linux and virtualization in 2017, but now it’s been assimilated into IBM as of 2019.
#17 Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) up 72% in 2017… Down 7% YTD!
As the leader of robotic surgery in 2017 with Da Vinci, it’s still the leader in 2025. It has so far managed to not be acquired and it hit a $200 billion market cap. Its revenues of over $8 billion in 2024 compare to annual revenues of $3.1 billion back in 2017.
#18 Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) up 70% in 2017… Down 21% YTD!
Adobe was an endless grower in the prior decade and had moved to a SaaS subscription model back then. Now even with AI its growth is getting spottier. Adobe’s stock is down handily from $550 just in early December and analysts have been making waves of price target cuts in the technology sector.
#19 FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) up 69% in 2017… Down 22% YTD!
FMC is now solely focused on agriculture and crops. Back in 2017 it had a lithium business that was spun out in 2018. The stock had already fallen since the election of last year and it has fallen well under its consensus target price. This is just a different company now than in 2017.
#20 Illumina Corp. (NASDAQ: ILMN) up 68% in 2017… Down 44% YTD!
Illumina could do no wrong in 2017 with gene sequencing, but its stock was already down about one-third from the end of 2017 and was less than one-third of its peak value in 2021. At $141 earlier, its consensus price target of almost $163 was that of a more matured company that no longer seems to be growing revenues.
