RTX Corp. (NYSE: RTX) is the successor company after Raytheon and United Technologies merged their aerospace and defense operation in 2020. Despite what had been a shaky stock market up until mid-April, this defense and aerospace stock is up about 12% year-to-date. It’s also up over 20% versus a year ago. There is another Wall Street analyst who sees RTX continuing to shine with a big upgrade under Donald Trump’s defense plans of “peace through strength” in his second term as President.
Oggonomics has tracked multiple fresh analyst reports in recent weeks calling for more upside in RTX over the coming year. While this new report includes multiple upside targets for offense and defense alike, investors should keep in mind that no analyst report (and even multiple reports) should ever be the sole basis for buying or selling a stock.
The current position for multiple “Buy” ratings is one where strategic investors and longer-term investors looking out into 2026 and beyond may have similar views. Please keep in mind that Wall Street never issues any guaranteed upside nor any money-back guarantees in their reports.
BENCHMARK FIRES A ROCKET!
RTX was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark on May 14. Analyst Josh Sullivan set a new $140 price target in his call versus $129.50 today. Sullivan expects RTX to be a winner under this “peace through strength” strategy of new weapons that can be produced quickly and cheaply.
The Benchmark report did highlight Trump’s fresh trip to Saudi Arabia which included a $142 billion defense package. RTX is expected to see significant exposure in this as the package includes air and missile defense, air force and space advancement and advanced communications.
An ongoing boost is from Trump’s own defense budget that initially looks to be $1 trillion for fiscal 2026, up 13% from the 2025 budget. And RTX already sees roughly 60% of sales outside of the United States with partner and alliance nations.
BOFA GOES BIG!
BofA Securities’ Ronald Epstein reiterated his Buy rating and $150 price objective on May 5. This was even on the heels of a fresh 3,000 worker strike in Pratt & Whitney which includes assembly lines for the F135 and Geared Turbo Fan engines. Its $150 price objective values RTX as 14-times EV/EBITDA. RTX has been on BofA’s prized US1 List (its analysts top picks) since August 9, 2024. Just keep in mind that BofA did trim its price objective from a prior $155 in April on the heels of its earnings report.
When BofA addressed RTX’s broader defense opportunities in April, Epstein’s report said:
In Defense, we like RTX’s position relative to the potential $1 trillion FY26 US defense budget and European rearmament. Both markets have telegraphed a critical need for missile defense systems, munitions, and the ability to deliver at scale. We see RTX as one of the few companies in the world with the portfolio, technology, and geographic presence to deliver these needs. While awardees of new programs, such as the Golden Dome or NGAP, remain to be determined, we expect RTX’s defense backlog of $61 billion to continue to grow in the near term.
CFRA SEES UPSIDE
CFRA (S&P) also has a Buy rating and a $135 price target on RTX. Its most recent call from May 10 is projecting revenue growth of 6% to 7% in 2025. This is considered a tough comparison because RTX saw growth of 9% in adjusted sales and organic sales growth of 11% in 2024. CFRA is also calling for a slight margin expansion (to 12.8% from 12.6%) from higher volumes and favorable mix. The firm is also projecting $7 billion in free cash flow in 2025 versus $4.5 billion in 2024 and $5.5 billion in 2023.
CFRA’s Buy recommendation is said to reflect the company’s balanced portfolio of non-cyclical defense and its cyclical commercial aerospace operations. Defense is 45% and Commercial is 55%. CFRA values RTX at 19-times its 2026 earnings forecast of $7.12 per share.
ARGUS SEES DEFENSE & OFFENSE
The independent research firm Argus also reiterated its Buy rating with a $142 price target on May 5. Kristina Ruggeri, the Argus analyst behind the report, called RTX’s business mix favorable compared to most defense peers with a rebound in commercial aerospace sales and a strong international customer base both contributing a strong backlog. Management’s note that Q1-2025 was the eighth consecutive quarter of material growth is followed up with the report seeing stability with strong demand for its military products.
Argus also noted that RTX is benefitting from over 40% of sales coming from higher-margin international sales at a time when nations are increasing their defense spending. The firm also still sees growth in air travel in 2025 and double-digit growth in its aftermarket business.
MORGAN STANLEY FIRED A MISSILE
Morgan Stanley also came out positive for RTX with an analyst upgrade on April 23. The firm raised RTX’s rating to Overweight from Equal-Weight with a $135 price target. This analyst call was a post-earnings report that called the sell-off overdone with a discounted valuation to its free cash flow versus the S&P 500. The analysts are also expecting that RTX will participate in the upside from a potential $1 trillion U.S. Defense budget as well as from exports in its defense business.
Morgan Stanley went as far to point out that RTX lost $16 billion in market cap over what the firm sees as only $850 million in potential tariff costs. The team said:
RTX does not have a particularly outsized impact from tariffs compared to the broader market as 54% of company revenue is to the more insulated Defense industry. In the long-term, should the tariffs stay in place, we would expect RTX to fully offset higher costs as contracts roll off in the next 5 years. The duopolistic nature of Aerospace OEM and the oligopolistic nature of the Aerospace and Defense supply chain protects RTX’s market share.
Morgan Stanley’ also outlined the case for RTX’s stock to fall and for it to rise much higher than its formal price target. RTX’s bearish case is down to $90 based on lingering tariff and supply chain issues. Its upside bullish case of $175 is based on a roll-off of tariffs or an outright tariff exemption for the aerospace and defense sector.
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Please note that all analyst ratings and the price targets mentioned in this report were issued by each firm named above. Those are their ratings and targets, and they may differ greatly from firm to firm. Oggonomics does not issue any formal ratings and price targets of its own on these stocks. Investing involves significant risks, and no analyst reports, even those with very strong conviction, ever come with any guarantees of profits. These research reports also never issue any money-back guarantees in case you lose money.
