It’s time for some sincere insensitivity when it comes to you and the funding of your retirement. If you want to scare most old people, don’t bother telling them they will not live forever. Just tell them their Social Security checks are going to be taken away. Now they are not just scared. They are scared AND pissed off!
The reality is that your Social Security and my Social Security payments are not going to vanish. Another reality is that Social Security checks after 2030 to 2033 may start to look a lot smaller if something is not done to change the outcome over literally the next few years. Do not forget this because as 2025 is about to start then this leaves just 6 years before the problem may be staring us all down.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt once said, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself!” That was during his 1933 inauguration speech and at a time when the Great Depression was in full swing. Now let’s zoom forward about ninety years to the present day. Again, trillions of dollars have been paid-in to fund Social Security. The reality is that, even with cost of living adjustment (COLA) at a 2.5% gain for 2025, many retirees do not feel Social Security is keeping up with inflation.
Social Security benefits replace one-third to half of an average worker’s earnings. And Social Security is still the largest source of income for most of its beneficiaries. The average benefit paid for all retired workers has been $1,927 in 2024 and will rise to $1,976 in 2025, according to SSA data. Translation — over half of Americans in retirement are almost completely dependent on less than $2,000 per month.
Bankrate has issued a Social Security survey that shows “Fear itself!” is a real fear. And keep in mind that Social Security (and Supplemental Security Income) benefits support more than 72.5 million Americans today. And there are millions more of us who will be eligible to start taking Social Security in the years right before and right after potential Social Security cuts could be seen.
The May 2024 annual report by the Social Security Administration projected that the combined trust reserves are projected to decrease from $2.788 trillion at the start of 2024 down to $551 billion by the end of 2033. That is not an insignificant number even considering that many “boomers” will no longer be around.
WHAT BANKRATE’S WORRY IS
According to Bankrate’s survey, the majority of Americans expect to rely on Social Security when they retire. And many people are concerned that they will not receive their benefits once they reach retirement age. Here are some of the statistics which were compiled from the Bankrate survey:
- 53% who have not retired yet do expect to rely on Social Security benefits to cover necessary expenses
- 73% are concerned they won’t be paid to them upon retirement age
- 71% who are already retired are concerned about receiving their promised benefits if the fund does run out
- 21% benefits could be cut if lawmakers do not change Social Security funding and payouts
- 28% who have not retired yet expect to be “very reliant” on Social Security
Bankrate even outlined just how reliant current retirees are on Social Security:
- 77% of current retirees are reliant on Social Security to pay necessary expenses;
- 15% say they are “not at all” reliant;
- and 2% don’t know how reliant they are.
YOUNGER, NO PROBLEM! OLDER, THERE’S A PROBLEM!
Bankrate even broke down some of the Social Security concerns by age groups. The majority of people who are the closest to retirement age say they’ll be reliant on Social Security. Younger workers do not expect to be as reliant, but this means a large portion of them are also expecting to be reliant to some extent. Here was a breakdown of the age groups and the Bankrate commentary on each:
- 69% of unretired baby boomers (60-78) expect to be reliant on Social Security benefits to pay necessary expenses when they retire.
- 56% of Gen-Xers (44-59) expect to be reliant on Social Security benefits to pay necessary expenses when they retire.
- 48% of non-retired millennials (28-43) expect to be reliant on Social Security benefits to pay necessary expenses when they retire.
- 46% of GenZers (18-27) expect to be reliant on Social Security benefits to pay necessary expenses when they retire
Bankrate does conclude that future Social Security benefits are not clear. If Congress takes action, it could increase funding to Social Security by raising taxes. Or the report notes that reducing retirement benefits is a potential outcome as well. Perhaps the dreaded “both” is the worst outcome — higher taxes AND reduced benefits.
DON’T BLAME TRUMP
It is easy to point fingers at one president over another about the future of Social Security. Trump is always a good scapegoat for the media, but the reality is that this debate has been discussed for at least three prior decades (because I started hearing about it in the 1990s). This is a situation where there are no innocents involved and if you haven’t taken steps to mitigate the risks of lower Social Security then the one to blame is the person who looks back at you in the mirror.
CNN reported in October-2024, just before the election, that Donald Trump “has long vowed to protect Social Security.” You are probably aware that CNN is one of the outlets that was not in favor of Trump at all. CNN was of course quick to point out that his promised “bevy of tax breaks” (including pledging to stop taxing Social Security benefits) could speed up the depletion of Social Security’s trust funds and lead to smaller monthly payments. The view offered by CNN was that Trump’s platform would lead the trust fund to run out of money by 2031, which would mean roughly a 30% cut in benefits (unless Congress acts).
The website RetirementLiving.com showed in 2023 that the average monthly Social Security payouts have risen a sharp 96.2% since 2000. Their issue here is that “inflation has increased by 1.65 times since then, resulting in minimal gains in income.”
THE OGGONOMICS MANTRA
Oggonomics may sound like it only targets strategic investors, but that “target” is in the sense of acting to boost your retirement years ahead on top of steady contributions toward saving and retirement. If you are truly worried about how your Social Security benefits will cover your living from your late-sixties until your death, you know what to do to help yourself — save into retirement accounts; save into non-retirement accounts; cut some of your worthless expenses… This is YOUR responsibility!
Owning a home and lowering your unnecessary expenses are obvious key drivers to helping fund your retirement. Just don’t ever forget the final Oggonomics mantra for those of you who think the government should be your caretaker in retirement:
If your retirement and aging plan is just for the government to take care of you, you probably are not going to like how the government takes care of you.
FDR’s ROLE IN SOCIAL SECURITY
FDR signed the Social Security Act in 1935. Taxes were collected for the first time in January 1937 and the first one-time lump-sum payments were paid out that same month. According to the SSA history, regular ongoing monthly benefits started in January 1940. And every working American has been paying combined trillions of dollars into Social Security since then.
Keep in mind that when Social Security was enacted the average life expectancy was drastically lower than it is now. This social program was designed to help those who could not work to get through their retirement years without starving or being homeless. Social Security was not designed to last each person fifteen to twenty years (or longer).
Whatever will be done to protect and/or bolster the Social Security trust is probably going to be unpopular. It is quite possible that those who have to contribute the most to fund it AND those who receive the most benefits from that funding may both be unhappy about the ends and the means.
