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The Other Side of Strategic: Netflix Woes May Go Beyond Its Elon Musk Challenge

Jon Ogg by Jon Ogg
October 5, 2025
in Investing, Personal Finance
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Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) has been a stock that seems to never do any wrong. That was not the case this last week after Elon Musk posted on X for his followers to cancel their Netflix subscriptions over a film’s transgender theme was directed at children. There may be more at work than just this push. Meanwhile, Netflix is also simultaneously enjoying a ride with its most successful TV series ever in this last quarter.

While the stock closed down 0.8% at $1,153.32 on Friday, the reality is that Netflix was down 4.8% for the week after the prior Friday’s closing price of $1,206.41. And to make matters look worse, Netflix shares closed lower in each of the last five trading sessions — and Netflix is now down 14% from its all-time of $1,341.15 set on June 30 (2025).

Before shareholders automatically hit the panic button, Netflix shares have a 52-week range of $677.88 to $1,341.15. The stock is still up over 29% so far in 2025 and the stock is over 63% versus a year ago.

One thing that might be rather different about Netflix shares’ pricing action this time ahead of earnings season is that Wall Street analysts have historically raised their price targets relentlessly ahead of each earnings season. The only real price target hike seen this last week was from Citi, maintaining a Neutral rating while raising its price target to $1,295 from $1,280. Again, analysts have historically pounded the table with higher price targets ahead of earnings.

Here is the Musk situation. On October 1, @elonmusk posted on X: Cancel Netflix for the health of your kids. And the same day: Cancel Netflix. Musk is warning of a transgender woke agenda over a former series “Dead End: Paranormal Park” as the transgender character is said to be targeting children. Musk also commented that the show’s creator, Hamish Steele, had mocked the murder of Charlie Kirk.

Outside of Musk, one issue hurting Netflix is what the implications will be on President Trump’s tariffs on films produced outside of the United States. With Netflix targeting international growth with foreign films and series for foreign markets (and with those productions available in the U.S.), tariffs are a huge wild card when it comes to Netflix.

Others have accused Netflix of being against white Americans with its DEI themed films.

Citi’s higher price target and Neutral rating on Friday noted that currency is expected to drive a modest miss on revenue and EBIT in the quarter. The firm did also project that Netflix is likely to raise its fiscal 2025 EBIT outlook.

Netflix has also raised its pricing structure in 2025. With streaming rivals having recently raised prices, will Netflix choose to raise prices for 2026? These were the monthly subscriber price hikes earlier in 2025:

  • premium plan raised from $22.99 to $24.99
  • commercial-free, standard plan was raised from $15.49 to $17.99
  • standard plan with commercials raised from $6.99 to $7.99

There were some key insider share sales this last week. That said, these share sales were under a 10b5-1 planned share sale program via options being exercised. Chairman Reed Hastings sold 42,176 shares worth $49.4 million. Its CFO also sold 2,600 shares worth $3.05 million.

The flip side of the coin is that Netflix has the animated Korean smash hit of KPop Demon Hunters. Kids love the series, and it has become the biggest English language hit ever for Netflix. KPop had racked up an amazing 314.2 million worldwide views through September 14. It is now assumed that KPop will carry on with many future productions as well — and there has hardly been any KPop merchandise for kids to buy yet.

Netflix is set to report its third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, October 21, 2025 after the market closes.

Tags: analyst upgradesElon MuskinsiderNFLXTariffs
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