Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has seen an impressive 2024. Despite being considered late to the AI game, the new iPhone 16 models are releasing newer AI features under Apple Intelligence. And there are hundreds of millions of iPhones that need to be upgraded. Now Apple’s stock is up 34% YTD — and a top analyst sees almost 30% upside ahead for 2025.
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities already had the top price target at $300 for Apple. Right after Christmas, Ives reiterated Apple’s Outperform rating and raised his 12-month price target up to $325.
Oggonomics always reminds investors and its readers that no single analyst report should ever be the sole basis to buy or sell a stock. That decision to buy or sell, or hold or short sell, is up to each investor and that decision should be made with a financial advisor. All of the points issued in this report come from Wedbush Securities.
Even prior to this price target upgrade, Ives had pointed out noted that 100 million iPhones could be upgraded with newer devices in China alone next year. He also had previously pointed out that there are still 300 million iPhones which are currently in use around the world which have not been upgraded in over 4 years. Ives now believes that more than 240 million iPhone units could be sold in fiscal year 2025 alone — the highest of any year.
The website Statista showed the record year for iPhone sales was 242 million in 2021, with sales of 232.2 million units in 2022 and 231.3 million units in 2023.
If Ives is right in his “golden era of growth” outlook, becoming the world’s first $4 trillion market cap might become the world’s first $5 trillion market cap as well. Apple stock price at $259 is currently a $3.91 trillion market cap.
This growth forecast from Ives is really all about the iPhone upgrade cycle:
We believe Apple is heading into a multiyear AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle that is still being underestimated by the street… Rome wasn’t built in a day and neither will Apple’s AI strategy, but the seeds of that strategy with Apple Intelligence are now forming and will transform the Apple consumer growth narrative over the coming years.
Apple’s first AI features were released in October after the September initial sales release and the second batch was released in an update earlier in December. What will make the difference here is that the AI features are only available for the newer iPhones, iPads and Macs.
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Ives already values Apple’s service business worth $2 trillion alone. There are currently hundreds of applications still under development which will lead to billions of additional revenue dollars that should all lead to a 12 to 18 month growth renaissance for Apple.
Oggonomics does not have its own ratings and price targets for Apple and other companies alluded to in this report. It should also be pointed out that this most aggressive price target on Wall Street and the current $259 price target is already above the Finviz consensus analyst price target of $248.14.
Apple’s 34% YTD gain is impressive enough, but this was a $250 stock just a week earlier and it was a $230 stock just a month earlier.
