So, 2025 is here! In the aftermath of the Trump victory in November, stocks surged at first. Then the Santa Rally failed to materialize, and stocks returned back to the same levels as the day after the election. The problem is that long-term bond yields and less of a Fed rate cutting scenario took over, and there are fears about how the U.S. will be able to handle deficit spending and over $1.1 trillion in debt servicing costs.
Now it’s time for the forecasts for the year ahead. The S&P 500 was up 24% YTD on the last day of 2024. Strong gains of 13% for the Dow and 25% for the NASDAQ-100 were also seen, but all indexes pulled back from their late November and early-December steam.
The incoming Trump regime has many new plans for 2025 and beyond. Some of these changes include tariffs, modifying and extending prior tax cuts, less regulation, clamping down the border and deportations, government spending cuts and making the government smaller. Wall Street is trying to factor all of these issues into their forecasts for 2025.
Oggonomics has updated the 2025 price targets from major brokerage firms at the end of 2024 to generate a 2025 forecast snapshot for the S&P 500. Almost every major brokerage strategist and independent forecasters are calling for stronger gains in the S&P 500 Index in 2025.
It is important to keep in mind that the S&P 500 did previous cross well into the 6,000 handles already with an absolute peak of 6,099.97. It was at 5,922 with hours until the year closed out.
Wall Street is expecting the S&P 500 to be even higher by 10% or so by the end of 2025. Oggonomics has tracked forecast changes from the likes of Barclays, BofA, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS and many others. Independent market forecasters have also been included, along with longer-term views if applicable.
WALL STREET’s TARGETS FOR 2025
Oggonomics always reminds its readers that no single analyst call (same for strategists) should be used as the sole basis in deciding to buy or sell stocks. While almost every major brokerage firm is forecasting continued gains in 2025, those views come with absolutely no guarantees and assurances that the gains will materialize. And also keep in mind that no strategist ever believes that gains ahead will not experience some bumps along the way. And any adverse events or major developments can cause strategists to instantly and significantly change their expectations.
Here are the major firms’ strategist targets for the S&P 500 in 2025.
Barclays — Strategist Venu Krishna raised the 2025 target for the S&P 500 to 6,600 from 6,500. The firm’s rationale is based upon a resilient U.S. macroeconomic backdrop, a strong consumer, “normalized” inflation levels, and an ongoing earnings leadership from the big tech leaders that dominate the index.
BMO Capital Markets — Brian Belski issued a 6,700 target for the S&P 500, noting that earnings growth is likely understated.
BofA Securities — Savita Subramanian set her S&P 500 target to 6,666 by the end of 2025. The 11% gain (at the time) is not expected in a straight-line gain as volatility is expected to reappear and give investors a chance to buy in at lower levels. Top calls are for Financials, Discretionary, Materials, Real Estate, and Utilities with healthy cash return levels — and with the rally broadening out to “the other 493” stocks outside of the Magnificent 7. See why Chevron is its top pick for 2025.
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Deutsche Bank — Binky Chadha, chief global strategist, sees the S&P 500 at 7,000 by the end of 2025, up about 17% from the levels then.
Evercore ISI — Strategist Julian Emanuel set a 6,600 target for the S&P 500 by the middle of 2025. The view is calling this bull market “an infant” and the market is in a digestion phase after the initial election gains.
Goldman Sachs — David Kostin raised his S&P 500 target to 6,500 from 6,300 heading in November. With event-risks high, his take is that a friendlier fiscal policy or a more dovish Federal Reserve could boost stocks even further. See Goldman’s top 7 Conviction Picks for 2025.
HSBC — Nicole Inui sees the S&P 500 hitting 6,700 by the end of 2025. Strong corporate earnings and a resilient U.S. economy are cited for support even as valuations are more stretched. Margin expansion is also considered a driver along with expectations that the Fed may cut another 100 basis points off of the fed funds rate.
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Jefferies – Had only a 6,000 target for 2025 as of November, but the positive comments pointed to an upside scenario of 6,800 if supported by further investor sentiment and rate cuts. The downside scenario was set at 4,700 if the macro themes do not pan out.
JPMorgan — Strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has switched from bear to bull after the firm’s old S&P 500 price target of 4,200 for 2024 proved to be quite wrong. Now his new 2025 target for the S&P 500 is 6,500. The reasons for the switch are American exceptionalism, AI growth, and central banks continuing to ease.
Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson issued a note calling that the S&P 500 could hit 6,500 in 2025. His take is stronger earnings growth, a better business cycle and even hopes still in place for more Fed rate cuts ahead. His optimistic scenario goes as high as 7,400 and his negative scenario would be a drop down to 4,600.
Oppenheimer — Peak forecaster, calling for 7,100 on the S&P 500 based on AI and economic growth. The firm also sees sustainable monetary policy and favorable labor markets driving the markets higher with S&P earnings growth of 10%. Its winning sectors include IT, consumer discretionary, industrials, financials, and communications. And while an “economic utopia” may be overstated, the sound market foundation will support both the equity markets and the coming benefits of AI generating efficiencies and boosting productivity across all sectors of the economy.
ALSO READ: 10 BIG ANALYST STOCK PREDICTIONS FOR 2025
RBC Capital Markets — Head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina sees the S&P 500 hitting 6,600 by year-end. Using a quantitative approach of valuations, economic sentiment, earnings yield gaps and political expectations, and the 6,600 target is the median forecast under different expectations. That said, the report also cautioned that RBC expects a 5% to 10% market correction along the way.
Stifel — The lone wolf calling for a big drop! Stifel sees the S&P 500 gaining the first half of 2025 up to 6,400 or so on the S&P 500, but then expects a drop in the second half of the year. Slowing GDP and personal consumption inflation remaining above the Fed’s target are likely to take the S&P 500 back down to 5,500 or so by the end of 2025. If Stifel is right, that’s roughly an 8% correction from current prices by the end of 2025 — but that would represent a drop of nearly 15% from its own implied peak.
UBS — Strategist Jason Draho noted that the election results pulled forward some gains, set its 2025 target for the S&P 500 to 6,400 from a prior 6,000 target but that was in October. UBS adjusted its 2024 target at 5,850 from a prior 5,600; and the firm’s original 5,4000 target for 2024 was the highest among the largest brokerages at the time. This new forecast was based on 3.7% GDP growth next year, as well as earnings growth for stocks and improving economic conditions being supported by its monetary policy outlook.
Wells Fargo — Equity strategist Christopher Harvey issued a 7,007 forecast for 2025. Their optimistic views come from stronger economic growth, supportive fiscal policies and stronger corporate earnings. The prior forecast was already calling for a rise to a range of 6,500 to 6,700. Tariffs are considered to be a wild card, which in turn could take inflation back up to 3.3% or so
ADDITIONAL STRATEGISTS CALLING FOR GAINS
Argus sees the S&P 500 rising to 6,700 in 2025… The independent research firm said that stocks have been up about 80% of the years since Reagan’s victory in 1980 with an average gain of about 13%. While Argus says there’s no guarantee that 2025 will be as strong as 2024, and the start of 2025 may be difficult, earnings growth acceleration to a low-double-digit rate during the first half of 2025. Argus sees the stock market taking cues from two sources in 2025: first is the Fed and second is earnings growth. The firm expects earnings to grow 12% after a 9% increase in 2024 and it sees interest rates trending lower as the Fed continues to ease while valuations will at least hold steady.
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CFRA’s Sam Stovall sees the S&P 500 extending its bull market gains to 6,585 in 2025. This view does come with expectations of higher volatility as Trump’s incoming administration policy changes come into focus. This takes into account 2.4% real GSDP growth, 13% higher S&P earnings and incorporates fundamental, technical and historical considerations.
Macro Risk Advisors has issued a level of 7,700 for the S&P 500 next year.
Yardini Research (Ed Yardeni) has a 7,000 target for the S&P 500 at 7,000 for 2025. He also now issued a call for the S&P 500 to hit 10,000 by 2030.
DISCLAIMER
Oggonomics has pulled each strategist call as each firm’s forecast by name. These targets and views are from those firms named and are not necessarily the view of Oggonomics. Each investor is responsible for their own decisions to buy or sell securities and those decisions should be made with the help of a financial advisor.
