Thursday’s ultimate meltdown of relations between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump was both unusual and historic. This development also comes with countless ramifications, perhaps too many to ponder in a single session. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) lost 14% of its value, or about $150 billion in market cap.
Oggonomics is going to try to avoid getting in the midst of the drama and look at the simple facts, actual moves, and show how Wall Street is reacting to the end of what was more than a special relationship between President Trump and Elon Musk. What are Wall Street analysts saying? What total value has been lost? What competitors are winning from this fight? What are the opportunities for Tesla competitors, as well as what may come for SpaceX, xAI and so on.
Tesla’s stock went from $322.49 on Thursday’s opening bell to as low as $273.21, before closing down 14.26% at $284.70 on a whopping 287 million shares. It was trading higher by about 4.4% at $297.25 on Friday after an hour of trading.
Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB) competes directly against SpaceX for space launch. Rocket Lab closed down 1.7% at $26.45 on Thursday but was trading up 7.5% at $28.44 minutes before Friday’s opening bell. Its 52-week range is $4.20 to $33.34. Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR) provides delivery services for the transportation and delivery of payloads, and its shares were up 4% at $11.31 shortly after the opening bell on Friday (52-week range of $3.15 to $24.95).
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) competes with Musk’s StarLink in the U.S. with its constellation of BlueBird satellites, offering a cellular broadband network in space that is to be accessed directly by smartphones for commercial use and other applications (including government use).
Bitcoin briefly dipped under $102,000 on Friday morning but was last seen close to $104,000 — and while this is down from the nearly $112,000 high this will mark the 29th consecutive day that Bitcoin has remained above $100,000. Bitcoin’s prior streak with lowest prints above $100,000 in early 2025 was only 6 days — and only a 5-day streak with the lows above $100,000 in December/2024.
Tesla’s robotaxi service remains upcoming. Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) closed up more than 1% at $84.67 on Thursday and was indicated up 1.7% at $86.10 shortly after Friday’s opening bell. Lyft, Inc. (MASDAQ: LYFT) closed up almost 2% at $15.53 on Thursday and was trading up just 0.3% at $15.57 shortly after Friday’s opening bell.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ: DJT) was last seen up 3% at $20.75 on Friday morning. It slid hard on Thursday afternoon and closed down at $20.12 after closing at $21.88 on Wednesday. Trump Media & Technology’s 52-week range is $11.75 to $54.68.
Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating and lowered their price target on Tesla to $285 from $295 on the heels of the fight on X. The report was mainly focused on deliveries and the firm now sees Telsa’s deliveries for Q2 ending up between 335,000 and 395,000 units — with a 365,000 base case, down from a prior base case of 410,000 (and 417,000 was the consensus).
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities tweeted from @DivesTech on X this morning — We believe this fight in the sandbox between Musk and Trump will be resolved soon and this feud can end and Musk can focus back on Tesla and autonomous. Musk needs a friend in the White House and we believe Musk/Trump will makeup and be friends again. Tesla way oversold here
@DivesTech also said — The quickly deteriorating friendship and now ‘major beef’ between Musk and Trump is jaw-dropping and a shock to the market, and putting major fear for Tesla investors on what is ahead,” Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote in a note on Thursday.
TD Cowen’s note on the Thursday Musk/Trump showdown clearly raises the degree of near-term uncertainty for Tesla. TD has a Buy rating on Tesla and a $330 price target. The uncertainty includes how political developments may impact Tesla’s sales with more questions than answers at this point. The firm estimates that about 35% of Tesla’s domestic sales are in Republican counties (with 12% in “Deep Red” counties) and believes that Tesla’s sales are roughly 65% Democratic exposure (with about 36% being in “Deep Blue” counties).
Morgan Stanley has maintained its Overweight rating and $410 price target on Tesla, with some obvious warnings and concerns that Tesla car sales could be impacted as both sides of the political spectrum may be alienated. Two of the first five points were about tax credits and the “distraction — “We do not believe the phasing out of EV tax credits from the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is material to the long term outlook for TSLA.”… “We believe Tesla’s recent 50 percent rally was driven primarily by hopes that Elon Musk would refocus time and attention on Tesla.” And on volatility — “When putting our trading cap on, we have higher conviction in near-term volatility than near-term direction. We reiterate our $410 price target but are prepared for the stock to give up more than just the 4 weeks of performance it has sacrificed so far.” Morgan Stanley’s Big Picture:
“While emotions are running high, we are not convinced the longer-term vectors that drive the stock’s value have changed here. AI leadership, autonomy/robotics, manufacturing, supply chain re-architecture, renewable power, critical infrastructure… Tesla still holds so many valuable cards that are largely apolitical, in our opinion.”
CFRA (S&P) has maintained a Hold rating and a 12-month price target of $320 on Tesla after the boxing match on X. This is based on a 2026 P/E of 110x. The note ends saying CFRA is expecting more volatility in the near term and that investors should “Buckle up!” CFRA’s note says:
We believe Musk is genuinely upset about the projected deficits and other aspects of the House of Representative’s version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and feels slighted after his massive political donations and efforts to reduce the deficit through DOGE. However, we think the stock’s sell-off reflects a number of other factors: an unjustified run-up following its Q1 earnings release, ongoing market share losses in China and Europe, and a realization that next week’s Robotaxi launch in Austin could disappoint.
Wall Street veteran @JimCramer posted on X… I think Musk will do what’s right, but Trump won’t like it..and that’s what matters
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Musk/Trump situation could raise questions over a $5 billion debt sale from xAI that is scheduled to close later on this month.
Will this ultimately torpedo the Big Beautiful Bill for taxation and spending?
And by the time this is read the story may have already morphed into something more…
