Crocs, Inc. (NASDQ: CROX) might be in the perfect business in “normal” times. It sells shoes that every kid in America has, and adults use them for utility shoes (and some for every day shoes as well). It has had one serious overhang, similar to most apparel and accessories companies — manufacturing is all overseas, meaning trade spats, tariffs and international trade issues come into play, as do higher shipping and materials costs.
Oggonomics tracks Wall Street’s daily flow of analyst calls looking for those hidden gems that long-term investors and short-term traders might have otherwise missed. The stock market just logged in new all-time highs and investors are looking for undervalued ideas that may be under-the-radar.
BofA Securities Christopher Nardone believes that Crocs is very much under-the-radar and very undervalued. And it’s $102 stock price is nowhere close to reclaiming its old highs as shares are down 31% from a year ago and down 6% YTD. The company generates roughly 60% of sales from North America, 20% from Asia Pacific, and 20% from EMEALA. The analyst report reiterated a Buy rating and it did trim the price objective to $135 from $140.
While Oggonomics doesn’t usually like to see price target cuts in research reports, BofA’s target is actually above the other analyst targets that have been seen in the last couple of months. The report also implies 35% upside if Nardone’s research views proves to be correct.
According to the analyst report, Crocs can still get to $13.00 in earnings (per share) this year because its “margin defensibility.” The stock is also down 14% from its May earnings report and its slower U.S. wholesale environment should be priced in even with additional tariffs and a weaker wholesale outlook. As for tariffs, Nardone said:
Under a framework of 10% universal tariffs and 55% China tariffs, we forecast a $83 million COGS impact or a 190 basis impact to gross margins.
Nardone specified that its valuation of 7.5-times earnings is very inexpensive considering sales growth and expected 22.5% to 23.0% operating margins over the next two or three years. The report also specified that Crocs’ management has made it clear that they would rather miss sales and have clean inventory to help preserve margins while BofA expects margin expansion for the Cros and Heydude growth in direct-to-consumer sales. This is helping Nardone value Crocs at 10-times forward earnings based on expected “multiple growth” that strategic investors love to see.
BofA’s latest investment rationale says:
We are Buy-rated given our view that the Crocs business has strong momentum, incremental progress at HeyDude will lead to multiple expansion, and the company’s cash flow profile is undervalued.
At $102, Crocs has a market cap of $5.7 billion and a 52-week trading range of $86.11 to $151.13. Its consensus analyst price target is closer to $126. Crocs pays no dividend, yet.
