Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) is an absolute leader in ride-hailing, and the company keeps making moves outside of its core market to add to its growth ahead. Wall Street by and large still loves the stock and sees its shares going higher, but investors have so far just ignored any upside potential over competitive fears from robotaxis and other issues.
Uber is now a “GARP” stock, implying growth at a reasonable price. Its current equity valuations are quite low while it still has lots of room for growth. This stock is significantly underperforming the S&P 500 and the bulls just haven’t been able to land a victory yet. Maybe it’s time for another look under Uber’s hood here.
Oggonomics is taking a 360-degree review of Uber Technologies to look at both sides of the coin here. All of its new and existing partnerships have so far managed to convince investors that the rewards outweigh the risks here. So — are the bulls right or are the bears right?
EXPANDING PARTNERSHIPS & RISKS
Uber shares have fallen over many ongoing risks around robotaxis taking over the ride hailing market. The problem here about these risks is that robotaxis may not even a have a 1% market penetration yet. And even as the “robo” macrotrend will grow, Uber is already expected to be a beneficiary even as Tesla (TSLA), Lyft (LYFT) and Waymo (part of Alphabet -GOOGL) are all in the mix.
Uber is expanding its partnership with Pony AI Inc. (PONY) to deploy over 2,000 robotaxis across Europe as the two companies expand their autonomous driving partnership. Uber already has an existing agreement with Waymo, but that relationship may ultimately end before or as the agreement expires in 2028. Uber has also partnered with Hinomaru Kotsu for a robotaxi pilot deployment in Tokyo, Japan. Uber is currently expected to invest over $10 billion in robotaxis over the coming years.
Uber already had a stake in Delivery Hero SE as the company offers online food ordering, quick commerce, and delivery services. The German company operates in approximately 70 countries across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. Back in July, Uber made an offer of $13.7 billion to acquire the rest of Deliver Hero outside of its stake (for a total value of $14.8 billion).
And on August 17, Uber announced a strategic partnership with Zipline to target one million drone deliveries daily by the end of 2029. Uber is making a strategic investment in Zipline and expects its first drone deliveries to take place later in 2026 with an ultimate expansion into dozens of U.S. cities.
After divesting part of its Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) stake in 2025, Uber has now fully exited its stake in the robotics delivery company.
SOLID-ENOUGH EARNINGS?
Uber’s Q2-202 earnings results were near expectations, and its stock was already down going into the report. Its non-GAAP EPS of $0.81 rose 35% from a year earlier and were 1% above expectations. Its gross bookings of $58 billion was up 24% from a year earlier and exceeded its own guidance that was calling for approximately 20% growth.
Where the report may have spooked investors was that revenue of $14.19 billion was below consensus, but this was in part due to $1.1B in accounting-related headwinds. Its delivery margins rose 30 basis points to 3.8%, with Mobility maintaining 7.6% margins and its Freight accelerated to 25% growth.
Uber’s guidance for Q3-2026 was near expectations. Gross bookings were forecast in a range of $58.25 billion to $60.25 billion, with earnings put in a range of $0.84 to $0.88 (EPS).
The Q2-2026 report also showed that Uber repurchased $518 million worth of its stock in Q2 alone, with ultimate plans to repurchase $20 billion under its full share repurchase authorization.
THE “GARP” VALUATION CASE
While the S&P 500’s respective gains are 13% YTD and 20% from a year ago, Uber has grossly underperformed. Uber’s stock performance is -8% YTD and -19% over the last year. That represents a 21% YTD lag and a lag of 40% over the last year.
With its stock at $75.00, its 52-week range is $65.41 – $101.99. Uber’s consensus analyst price target is close to $102.
As noted earlier, Uber is now a “GARP” stock for “growth at a reasonable price.” Wall Street sees continued revenue growth in double-digit territory, rising from $52 billion in 2025 to $57.9 billion in 2026 and to $66.8 billion in 2027. Its earnings expectation of $3.62 EPS in 2026 is expected to reach $4.62 EPS in 2027 — and BofA sees earnings reaching $5.28 EPS on revenue of $79 billion in 2028.
With a market cap of $153 billion, the stock is valued at less than 17-times earnings. That’s not considered “expensive” by many metrics for an S&P 500 company that still has lots of growth ahead and is the de facto leader in its category.
WHAT WALL STREET ANALYSTS ARE SAYING
Wall Street analysts still see Uber’s stock as handily undervalued. With a market cap of $155 billion, the stock is now close to its lowest valuations since going public in 2019 at just 17-times earnings and about 13-times expected free cash flow. The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Uber is nowhere close.
Investors may want to take note that many analysts have trimmed their price targets while maintaining mostly positive ratings. That may be an issue for some investors, but with such a weak performance it has an implied 35% upside to the $102 consensus analyst price target.
The independent research firm Argus reiterated its Buy rating with a $114 price target on August 17. Argus also has it on the firm’s Focus List. It also bumped up its earnings expectations for 2026 and 2027, noting:
Over the next three years, UBER expects to grow gross bookings in the mid-to-high teens and to deliver a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%-40% in EBITDA. Both estimates were significantly above our previous forecasts.
Here are the Wall Street analyst calls seen over the last 30 days:
- 8/10 Roth Capital (Buy) target cut to $100 from $105
- 8/10 Jefferies (Buy) target raised to $110 from $100
- 8/06 DA Davidson (Buy) target cut to $100 from $107
- 8/06 Wells Fargo Overweight) target cut to $89 from $100
- 8/06 Bernstein (Outperform) target cut to $95 from $110
- 8/06 Barclays (Overweight) target cut to $106 from $107
- 8/06 Guggenheim (Buy) target maintained at $125
- 8/06 Susquehanna (Positive) target cut to $90 from $110
- 8/06 Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight) target cut to $90 from $98
- 8/06 Needham (Buy) target maintained at $109
- 8/05 BofA (Buy) target cut to $101 from $103, after cutting the target from $104 on 7/28
- 7/17 TD Cowen (Buy) target maintained $118
- 7/17 BTIG (Buy) target maintained at $100
- 7/16 Wedbush (Outperform) target set at $91
- 7/14 KeyBanc (Overweight) target cut to $105 from $110
On July 27, CFRA (S&P) lowered its Strong Buy rating to Buy and it cut the price target to $90 from $108 in that call. On August 5 it maintained the Buy rating but trimmed the price target down to $85 in its post-earnings research report.
WHAT OTHER INVESTORS SAYING
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took a $2 billion stake in early 2025, and as one of his largest positions the stock has basically done nothing even as valuations have become more attractive. A recent letter from Ackman noted that Uber’s valuation is increasingly disconnected from its fundamentals. Ackman sees it with top-notch leadership and called Uber one of the highest quality businesses in the world. He expects earnings to rise 35% this year, with strong revenue growth, expense controls, and operational leverage adding to his bullish bet.
Angel investor Jason Calacanis has been on record calling Uber’s stock a generational buying opportunity and that its stock should be up at $100.
Short sellers have a position in Uber, but the most recent short interest of 47.4 million shares is not massive considering its size. That short interest represents less than 3 days to cover, and it’s only about 2.3% of its shares outstanding.
DISCLAIMERS
No information in this reporting is intended to be investment advice, nor is this a recommendation to buy or sell Uber shares or shares in its partners and rivals. All stocks have risks that could result in financial loss. That is true for blue chips, growth stocks and value stocks — including Uber. Investors should consult with their own financial advisor(s) before investing in individual stocks.
All of the ratings and price objectives have been attributed to each brokerage and research firm specifically by name. Oggonomics does not issue formal ratings or price targets of its own for individual stocks.
Investors should never rely upon any single research report as the sole basis to buy or sell any stock. After all, analysts can be wrong and the overall landscape can change in the blink of an eye. Please also do not forget that analyst research reports never come with assured profits nor assurances that upside price targets will be achieved even if the company delivers on its expectations.
