Bitcoin is back. Sort of back. It’s up 30% from its lows, but still down over 30% from its highs. Still, some investors are wondering if the selling wave is over and if the lows have now been seen. It’s complicated and the CLARITY Act is still waiting in the wings with an upcoming vote in September.
After its peak of $125,000 in Q4-2025 fell to challenging and briefly piercing the $60,000 mark in June-2026, Bitcoin briefly went back above the $80,000 mark rally this week. Then came profit-taking back to under $79,000 on last look. One key driver in the last week was net inflows coming back into spot bitcoin ETFs. And last week’s surge of 20% in just three days marked Bitcoin’s strongest 3-day rally since 2023.
Whether the latest recovery in crypto may signal that recent lows of just under $60,000 seem a safe bet is one thing. Expecting an imminent return to prior highs of late-2025 is another matter completely. And it’s a lot easier to suggest that near-term lows are safe than to suggest a rapid return to prior highs. Investors should also be more than leery of any major bullish “to the moon!” price targets that are offered daily from influencers and investors on social media.
There is an important reminder here about asset allocation. Those who chose to take a 1% to 2% exposure to bitcoin (or all crypto) versus all other assets did not have to panic during the drop in the first half of 2026. Those who were “all-in” and who chose not to keep an allocation strategy were left in the proverbial wind — and many were forced into a panic.
Averaging out multiple reports, U.S.-traded bitcoin ETFs generated roughly $1.92 billion in net inflows last week. That may not be the largest 3-year count of inflows on record, but it appears to have been the largest short-term inflows since October-2026 when Bitcoin was reaching its peak around $125,000.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is the largest crypto ETF of them all. The “IBIT” fund has seen its shares surge from $36.50 to $44.60 in just the last week. Its direct bitcoin holdings as of August 24, 2026 had risen to $60.333 billion with its most recent holdings showing ownership of 768,039.9 bitcoin. IBIT’s 52-week range is $32.84 – $71.82.
The ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO), which invests in bitcoin futures rather than actual bitcoin, has seen its shares surge from $8.65 to $10.63 in the last week. Its per share NAV has risen from $8.68 to $10.63 per share over the same reference period. This futures ETF is subject to price erosion due to futures rolling off and its 52-week range is $7.87 – $20.91.
The recent interest and inflows in bitcoin also translated to recent gains for Strategy Inc. (MSTR). The world’s largest Bitcoin Treasury company’s shares have surged from $95 to $122 in the last week. That said, its 52-week range of $81.81 – $365.21 should show that Michael Saylor’s company has proven to be far more volatile than the actual Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETF prices.
A fresh analyst price target was seen for Strategy. Its stock was reiterated as Buy and its price target was raised to $175 from $130 at Canaccord Genuity on Tuesday (August 25). CFRA highlighted MicroStrategy on August 22, with a Hold rating and its price target recently went from $150 to $110. The unit of S&P noted that Strategy is the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company with 843,775 BTC holdings but remains cautious about its volatile mNAV premium of 1.05 (versus a 1.67 historical average. That report addressed its preferred shares and convertible debt concerns:
Strategy faces $1.76 billion in annual dividend and interest obligations from $15.4B preferred equity and $6.7 billion convertible debt, creating liquidity constraints for a business with limited core cash flow. The company maintains $3.75 billion USD reserve providing 2.1 years coverage. Gross margin declined to 66.6% as MSTR migrates to subscription sales.
An August 26 call from Bernstein may still sound upbeat, but it included a price target cut. Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating but cut its price target on Strategy to $350 from $450. Bernstein’s updated bitcoin cycle outlook and Strategy’s equity dilution were cited as reasons for the price target cut. With the era of declining interest rates now over, the firm sees a slower move to all-time highs — with $150,000 potentially by mid-2027 and potentially $300,000 thereafter.
Other firms have held or trimmed their respective price targets for Strategy within the last three weeks or so:
- 8/03 — B. Riley (Buy) target down to $155 from $215
- 8/03 — Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight) target down to $186 from $212
- 8/03 — Barclays (Overweight) target down to $125 from $130
- 7/31 — Benchmark (Buy) target down to $435 from $570
- 7/31 — BTIG (Buy) maintained $250 target
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) has also participated in the surge. Its share price has risen from $18.50 to above $25 in just the last week. Its 52-week range of $12.80 – $65.60 also shows that it has been significantly more volatile than the price of bitcoin and the bitcoin ETFs.
Other cryptocurrencies have also participated in the recent surge of buying interest. Ether (ETH) saw its price surge from $1,900 to over $2,400 within the last week. XRP recently hit $1.48 after rising more than 45% in the last week as well.
The U.S. Treasury’s first attempts to buy longer-dated U.S. Treasury notes and bonds was followed by a more recent announcement that Treasury would double its purchases of the longer-dated debt.
A fresh CNBC report also pointed to Fundstrat, run by crypto-bull Tom Lee, recently said:
Fundstrat also noted that bitcoin rallied without fresh purchases from Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. Strategy has not bought bitcoin for two weeks. If it starts buying again while ETF demand remains strong, that could provide another boost to prices.
A sharp recovery from recent lows doesn’t come to an easy conclusion here. It doesn’t seem unfathomable to wonder if bitcoin’s recent lows around $60,000 have been seen. But thinking that imminent new highs for bitcoin is another matter entirely. And, again, please view any “to the moon!” price forecasts by influencers and crypto-insiders.
