As investors awake on Wednesday morning, the financial markets were surging as Donald Trump has been projected by all major media outlets to win the 2024 Presidential election in a monumental victory over Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden. Trump will have a majority Senate with at least 52 seats (42 so far for Democrats) and the House of Representatives, with 218 sets needed for majority, was last seen at 198 Republican versus 180 Democrat.
The focus for Oggonomics is solely the financial impact — Literally trillions of dollars have already been impacted. The legacy media machines are already pivoting and some of the moves several hours ahead of the opening bell are just too big to ignore.
The policies of the last 4-year period will now come under fire. A dual move against inflation and cleaning up the chaos at the U.S.-Mexico border will be primary issues for the incoming administration. And then there will be more changes to other key topics — regulation, taxation, government waste, healthcare, international trade, national defense, bitcoin, and honestly too many more items to mention.
This is a work in progress and will be updated multiple times before capturing the opening bell indications. Major Media Headlines…
- CNBC — Dow futures surge 1,200 points, Russell 2000 futures jump 6% as Trump defeats Harris
- IBD — Trump Wins: Futures Surge, Bitcoin Hits High, Tesla Spikes
- WSJ — DONALD TRUMP IS ELECTED 47TH U.S. PRESIDENT Former president is first in over a century to reclaim the White House after losing it
- Barron’s — TRUMP DEFEATS HARRIS… The Senate officially flips to GOP control. The House is too close to call… Sweeping Changes Are Coming to Washington and Beyond… Trump’s Win Could Stoke Inflation, Turning the Fed More Hawkish
- The Economist — Comeback king | Donald Trump wins the election… He has passed the 270 electoral-college votes needed for victory
- The Economist — Flipped: The Republicans capture the Senate. Expect big effects on policy and power in Washington
- CNBC – 10-year Treasury yield posts huge leap to 4.47% on Trump win, possible GOP Congress sweep
TWO DIRECT PEOPLE WINNERS
Here are some of the key direct movers based solely on names, without the obvious explanations needed…. Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ: DJT) is the obvious big winner and it surged 38% to $46.84 as Trump has won the Presidential election, with a 52-week range of $11.75 to $79.38.
Elon Musk’s gamble has paid off… Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) was last seen surging by 12% to $281.79 on Wednesday after a 3.5% gain on Tuesday. Its 52-week range was $138.80 to $273.54. Headlines:
- CNBC- Tesla could reach $1 trillion in market cap under a Trump win, says analyst Dan Ives
- CNBC – Tesla jumps nearly 15% as Trump-backer Musk seen benefiting from White House win
BANKS, BITCOIN, GOLD
The surge in financials is almost too big on the surface considering they had already been up so much in 2024:
- Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) was up 8% at $54.24, beating its 52-week high of $44.44
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and its “fortress balance sheet” was up 6.9% at $236.80, beating its 52-week and all-time high of $226.75.
- Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) was up 9.9% at $70.39, well above the 52-week high of $66.40.
- Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS), which caters only to the wealthy and to financial institutions, was last seen up 7.4% at $565.75 and above its prior high of $540.51.
- SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEArca: KRE) should be viewed as a winner if lower regulations allow for more regional banking mergers to take place. Its 9.5% gain to $64.75 is above its prior 52-week high of $60.82.
What about private equity and direct Republican investment themes? Blackstone Inc. (NYSE: BX) is the king of private equity with a $200 billion market cap. After rising 1.5% ahead of the election its 4.3% gain to $177.00 was above the prior high of $175.94. Elsewhere:
- Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE: APO) had already risen 7% on Tuesday but was up another 6.7% at $159.25 on Wednesday’s early trading indications. Its prior high was $151.84.
- BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) was last seen up 4.4% at $1,059.00 — also above its prior high of $1,032.00 before this.
- Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (CBOE: KRUZ) is considered to be “The Republican Theme ETF” and after a 1.1% gain on Tuesday it was trading up 1% at $32.01 on Wednesday. Its 52-week high is $32.25. This ETF invests in publicly traded stocks that sitting Republican members of United States Congress (and/or their families) have reported to have invested in through public disclosure filings.
Bitcoin surged to new highs with an 8% gain to $74,300 after briefly going above $75,000 for the first time. Here are the key moves seen so far:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) is the most liquid Bitcoin ETF and it was surging 7.6% to $42.52.
- ProShares Bitcoin ETF (NYSEArca: BITO), which is based on Bitcoin futures rather than spot prices, was up 7.7% at $20.17 in early trading.
- MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR) was indicated up 13% at $257.50.
- Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) was indicated up 11.9% at $10.87.
- Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) was last seen up 12.8% at $218.83, with a 52-week range of $84.69 to $283.48.
The Gold Trade… SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) is down on profit taking, but more central banks will be buyers ahead and its shares were down 1.5% at $249.45. Elsewhere:
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) was down 2.8% at $39.98.
- iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) was down 2.9% at $28.90 in early trading.
THE MEDIA WORLD…
Media stocks and those related are seeing moves as well. Don’t forget social media. Here are the key moves so far:
- The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) was one of the most vocal opponents in the media as a pure-play with no other operations than media. Its shares were last seen up 2.3% at $54.48, with a 52-week range of $41.55 to $57.08.
- News Corporation (NASDAQ: NWSA) was last seen up 2.7% at $28.62, matching its 52-week high.
- The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) was last seen up 1.6% at $98.21, massively below its 52-week high of $123.74.
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) was last seen up 2% at $173.20, and while it has been shown as opposed to the right it may win if lower regulations allow it flourish as Biden’s DOJ/FTC pending views about a monopoly are swept away.
- Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META), owner of Facebook and WhatsApp, was actually down by 0.8% at $567.65.
ENERGY, NOT JUST OIL
Oil & Gas… You heard “drill baby drill!” enough. Just keep in mind that increasing oil production and having a friendly administration to Big Oil led to lower oil prices. It’s supply and demand, but energy independence is the trade so far. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLE) was indicated up 3.3% at $93.20 after a 0.67% gain on Tuesday, and its 52-week range is $78.98 to $98.97. The XLE ETF has two main constituents, and the rest are all handily behind it:
- Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is 23% of the ETF and its shares were indicated up 3.6% at $123.30
- Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is 15.5% of the ETF and its shares were indicated up 3.9% at $159.50
The utilities sector has a direct issue here. The sector will win from lower energy prices, but higher interest rates will hurt the sector’s borrowing costs (if higher long-term rates stay). And utilities have to borrow to finance all that infrastructure. Don’t forget coal and nuclear. Here are a couple of key issues:
- The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLU) was down 1.3% at $77.34, well under its 52-week high of $82.50.
- Exchange Traded Concepts Trust (NYSEArca: COAL) is the “coal ETF” and it was up 1.1% at $24.00, with a 52-week range of $19.21 to $26.25.
- VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NYSEArca: NLR) was last seen up 3% at $89.90 and its 52-week range is $68.42 to $97.89.
Alternative Energy Freefall… Trump will not kill solar but he’s not likely to extend another two decades of credits beyond what is already in place. Here are some of the key moves:
- Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEArca: TAN) was indicated down 10.5% at $37.40 in early indications, versus a 52-week range of $36.64 to $54.62.
- Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSEArca: PBW) was last seen down 2.8% at $20.50, versus a 52-week range of $17.52 to $30.94.
- First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was down 14.4% at $184.75.
ELSEWHERE
Industrials are winning… The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLI) rose 1.6% to $136.10 on Tuesday and the ETF was up 3% at $140.18 on Wednesday’s early trading, beating its 52-week high of $139.77.
Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (CBOE: PAVE) is a key winner, although the U.S. still has to pay more on interest to service its mountain of debt than it can spend on infrastructure. The infrastructure ETF was up 2.7% on Tuesday and indicated up 5% at $44.50 on Wednesday — above its prior 52-week high of $42.53.
Chip-World…. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the largest chip play of them all but should actually not see much in gains or losses as its path was already set from Trump’s recapture of the White House and a Republican Congress. NVIDIA was up just 0.9% at $141.20 in early trading. The lagging Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) was actually up 4.5% at $24.39 and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) was up 1% at $143.10
The Gold Trade… SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) is down on profit taking, but more central banks will be buyers ahead and its shares were down 1.5% at $249.45. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) was down 2.8% at $39.98. iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) was down 2.9% at $28.90 in early trading.
The China Trade… iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEArca: FXI) rose 2.4% to $32.64 on Tuesday and was giving back all those gains with more than a 2.8% drop to $31.70 in early indications, with a 52-week range of $20.86 to $37.50. The Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (NYSEArca: ASHR) was last seen down 2.5% at $27.95, giving back most of Tuesday’s gains. KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSEArca: KWEB) was down 2.9% at $32.30 after a 2.2% gain the prior day.
Taiwan… iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (NYSEArca: EWT) has not yet traded after Tuesday’s 1.3% gain to $55.94, and its 52-week range is $42.13 to $57.69. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) is the king of semiconductors but its shares were indicated lower by 1.8% at $192.20 after Tuesday’s 2.2% gain, and its 52-week range is $91.60 to $212.60.
