Ok, so something major must have happened overnight. Was there an election somewhere? The Dow Jones Industrial Average gapped up over 1,300 points on Wednesday, November 6, 2024 and the index was up 3.5% at 43,729 right before the closing bell. The S&P 500 Index was up 2.5% and the NASDAQ-100 was up 2.7%. These three major U.S. index averages are effectively all-time highs. While this was a strong market with NYSE gainers of 1,733 trumping the 1,083 decliners it was a big day for stocks.
Oggonomics is designed to look for upside to the market when it is available and when it presents itself. So perhaps the biggest question is what other key indexes (and their ETFs of course) stood out the most? And Oggonomics’ core belief that the Efficient Market Hypothesis is broken is only backed up by such a massive one-day market gain — otherwise that would have happened already.
There is a reason for such a great gain. First off, some of the ghosts of 2016 are embedded into long-term investor memories. Stocks performed well after that election. Then there is the notion that taxes will either stay low or head lower. There is also a climate of less regulations ahead and perhaps even more friendly merger regulations.
Leveraged ETFs and ETFs using derivatives or single-stock strategies were screened out. Oggonomics is not issuing investment advice or suggesting that these ETFs will only rise based on the results of the election. And for a final warning before looking at these ETFs, there is no reason that they have to keep rising after such large gains. They could even lose value or underperform other sectors any time after this day.
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES
Very few nations enjoyed the same sort of gains seen by the major U.S. stock ETFs. That may not be surprising considering an “America First” view.
The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEArca: TUR) stood out handily as a top international gainer with a 2.9% gain to $33.53 before the close. And its 52-week range of $31.55 to $44.41 might not feel like a “missed it!” ETF gain. The Turkish ETF is up just 3.8% so far in 2024.
Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEArca: ARGT) closed up over 2.9% at $76.55 but it was up well over 3% at $77.21 at the highs of the day. The new president of Argentina has been sometimes referred to as the “Trump of South America” based on his strategies. This ETF is now up 49% YTD.
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MONEY & FINANCE
With average gains of 3% in the major equity ETFs, Oggonomics wanted to identify some of the winners with upsized gains on Wednesday. Again, no single-stock, leveraged and/or derivative ETFs were included. The cut-off gain here was a minimum of 4% in daily gains going into the closing bell.
There were two winners in the banking ETFs on hopes that less regulation (and probably financial market gains) would come into play starting in 2025. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLF) was last seen up 6.2% at $49.60. This one is not just banks and it even includes Berkshire Hathaway as a top holding. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEArca: KRE) was last seen up 13% at $66.98 on Wednesday as it is full of regional bank stocks that could all be potential merger candidates if the anti-merger regulatory climate changes drastically. These were both long-term highs but the “KRE” had problems early in 2023. A third financial ETF is the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (NASDAQ: ARKF) last seen up 6.5% at $33.90 at a new high. Its top holdings are Shopify, Coinbase, Block, Robinhood and others.
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And what about Bitcoin and crypto? The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) hit an all-time high with nearly a 10% gain to $43.40 along with Bitcoin on Wednesday on hopes that the U.S. government will now be much more enthusiastic about crypto in 2025. Is a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” coming? The ProShares Ether ETF (NYSEArca: EETH) closed up $5.57 (+11.4%) at $54.16 on Wednesday.
SECTORS & THEMATIC OUTPERFORMERS
The infrastructure and base economy ETFs were winners on the day. Think steel industrials and actual infrastructure stock companies. This required gains of 4% or more on the day and there also needed to be liquidity (volume) and size limits to keep some tiny ETFs with wide spreads out of the mix. These were presented below in order of Wednesday’s outperformance.
VanEck Steel ETF (NYSEArca: SLX) was last seen up 7.5% at $73.56, about 2% shy of a 52-week high. Its top holdings are Rio Tinto, Vale, Nucor, Steel Dynamics and others.
The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEArca: ARKW) closed up 7.3% at $96.11 on Wednesday. Tesla and Coinbase make up two of the largest three holdings.
The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (CBOE: PAVE) was up 6.7% at $45.22 and it hit a new high on this day. Top holdings are all less than 4% each — Trane Technologies; United Rentals; Eaton; Parker-Hannifin; and more.
First Trust Natural Gas ETF (NYSEArca: FCG) closed up 4.85% at $25.06 on Wednesday and this ETF is only up 3% YTD and still down from a 52-week high of $28.72. Its top 3 names by weighting (5% or less) are Western Midstream Partners LP, EQT Corp. and Conoco Phillips.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLI) was last seen up 4% at $141.60, and it hit a new high on this day. Its stock hit a new high this same day and top holdings include GE Aerospace, Caterpillar, RTX Corp., Uber and Union Pacific.
ALSO READ: 7 ANALYST STOCKS FOR 50% TO 100% IMPLIED UPSIDE!
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Again, this is not intended to be investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell these ETFs or any of the securities they own. There are no assurances these prices will rise after what was seen and these could even fall in value and lose money.
