AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) was firing on all cylinders up until September. The Federal Reserve’s rate-cut came as expected, but AT&T’s stock price fell from almost $30 down to almost $25 ahead of earnings. And the post-earnings reaction had the stock down 3.4% at $24.70 in mid-day trading on Thursday.
AT&T was looking like a poster child for strategic investors at the start of 2025, and even over the summer, with calls for the stock to rise 25% to 30% (double the expectations of the S&P 500). Now, with several analysts cutting price targets after earnings, that strategic investors case may just feel like another dropped call from a cellphone tower.
AT&T reported earnings showing that Q3/2025 was largely in line with expectations. The wireless subscriber growth topped expectations. And while revenue rose by 1.6% to $30.7 billion, the revenue figure was actually a tad under consensus estimates. And investors now seem focused on management’s highlight of it fiber expansion and convergence strategy at the same time that there are higher subscriber acquisition costs.
And as recently as mid-August, Oggonomics covered the addition of AT&T to the prized US 1 List of best ideas from BofA Securities. AT&T was trading above $29 at the time and was up 28% YTD and 51% year-over-year at that time. And BofA was then projecting an even stronger surge with its $34 price objective at the time.
Apparently, many of those large upside analyst calls have since fizzled. It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Wall Street is abandoning AT&T at this point. It also wouldn’t be accurate to say Wall Street was “pounding the table” in its defense of AT&T either. Here are just some of the price target changes that have been seen in AT&T after its earnings report:
- Barclays cut its price target to $28 from $30.
- Deutsche Bank cut its price target to $31 from $32.
- HSBC cuts target price to $29 from $30.
- RBC Capital Markets cut its target price to $30 from $31.
Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and a $32 price target. The firm sees AT&T’s strategy paying off and sees its execution building more conviction that AT&T can deliver or over-deliver on its guidance of accelerating growth through 2027. Morgan Stanley even noted that it sees an attractive risk/reward profile for AT&T — with 45% upside to the bull case and only 2% downside to the bearish case.
ALSO READ: THE CASE FOR $6,000 GOLD DOESN’T EVEN LOOK CRAZY
BofA decided to maintain its $34 price objective and Buy rating after earnings, but that share price action hasn’t gone in BofA’s favor. The firm is still calling for higher earnings, return on capital, return on equity, operating margins and free cash flow from now through 2027. Here is BofA’s view of the stock versus the market:
We think the market underestimates AT&T’s ability to add subscribers with attractive lifetime value in underpenetrated cohorts, gain share through converged offerings as it rolls out mid band spectrum to two-thirds of the country and take price on its existing wireless and home internet customer base.
TD Cowen was a standout call, maintaining a Hold rating but raising its target price to $33 from $32 in the call.
Other price target cuts had been seen ahead of earnings. Oggonomics tracked these three calls leading up to earnings:|
- Oct. 16 — Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating but cut its price target down to $29 from $31 ahead of earnings.
- Oct. 6 — Scotiabank downgraded AT&T to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform with a $30.25.
- Oct. 1 — Barclays downgraded AT&T to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $30 price target.
Please note that all price targets and ratings noted in this report have been assigned to each firm making the call by name. Oggonomics does not maintain any formal ratings or price targets on AT&T or any other related stocks.
Oggonomics would always remind investors that no single analyst report should ever be the sole basis for investing into or selling out of any stock. Analysts can get their thesis wrong just like other investors, and market fundamentals can change in an instant. Analyst reports also never come with assurances of gains or money-back guarantees if there are losses.
In the end, investors will have to line up pick which side of the camp they are in now after the drop… Has AT&T simply slid too much in what should be an ongoing story of improvements? Or has AT&T lost all of its strategic mojo that was building up until September?
AT&T’s most recent share price of $24.70 is now back in the middle of a $21.05 to $29.79 range over the last 52-weeks.
