The U.S. labor market has by and large gone back in favor of employers over the course of 2024. The days of workers demanding endless pay raises and stipulations to work at a company are over. Maybe. For now. Maybe for a while… The U.S. Department of Labor showed that the total number of job openings was down 237,000 to 7.67 million openings in July. The real issue to consider is what this really means for your job prospects if you are looking for work.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or the JOLTS report, is a two-sided coin. This is still a lot of job openings to fill. If the economy could add 300,000 jobs each month it would take about 2 years to fill entirely. Then again, this number of job openings is the lowest reading in about 3 1/2 years.
One issue to consider for workers looking to move jobs is whether or not the move is for a pay raise or to better match the life of a worker filling the new position. The labor department has to have a high number of “quits” as a signal that employees are willing to leave their existing job for a new position. Workers quitting is a sign of confidence that they can get the same or better employment elsewhere.
The ratio of job openings per available worker is now less than 1.1 and it had risen to over 2 back in 2022. That’s a tighter job market for sure. There is always the consideration that some openings are not likely to ever be filled. Some blocks may be inadequate pay or not enough perks for workers to want the job. And some are in locations that simply are “geographically undesirable” for where workers live. And some jobs have such high skills required that almost no candidates who interview would be qualified to fill the position.
Companies wanted to do whatever they could to retain their employees ahead of Covid. They had to go to desperate measures to retain those workers during and after Covid. Now the news of corporate layoffs, particularly in the prized and highly-paid white collar portion of the jobs market. And more companies are having wider layoffs.
If you are looking for a new job there is a mixed bag happening with quits, hires and layoffs using July’s data. The quits number rose to 3.3 million from 3.2 million. The number of layoffs rose to 1.8 million from 1.6 million. Total separations rose by 336,000, moving the separations rate (as a percentage of total labor force) up to 3.4% in July. The total number of hires rose by 273,000 in July, taking the hires rate up 0.2-points to 3.5%.
Right now is a harder time for workers wanting to jump ship than it has been in the last few years. If your company is conducting layoffs or is considering layoffs, this is a time to polish up that resume. And if you are not in the role that is meeting your financial needs or is conflicting with how you want to live — there is no time like the present to land somewhere else while the economic numbers are “lower but still positive.”
