General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) was a great growth story in 2024. The company was setting solid earnings, it had a dirt cheap earnings multiple, and it was buying back so much stock that it could be a private company in a few years. Despite the threat of tariffs impacting the auto sector, GM’s shares rose $60 in the aftermath of the election — and now the stock has slid 10% in just over a week of trading.
Oggonomics had shown how and why GM was in a better “Strategic” situation than Ford earlier in 2024. Whether or not that is changing has yet to materialize. On top of those tariff risks, GM is now set to take more than $5 billion in noncash charges due to weakness in its China business.
GM is also closing plants there and will offer fewer models in China. The company is writing down the value of its stake in partnerships with state-owned SAIC Motor by $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion — about half the value due to a weaker long-term outlook for that business. The rest of the charges ($2.7 billion or so) will come from restructuring that includes factory closures.
Oggonomics was eyeing GM as a strategic investment because of its U.S. and North American business rather than valuing its China business based on earnings in prior years. China has been in the mud for a while now and relations with the U.S. appear to be getting cooler rather than warmer. China’s recent stimulus package may also not be enough to stave off what would be considered a recession in free-market nations. The long and short of the matter is that GM’s earnings story remains a story pointed toward trucks and SUVs in North America.
Chinese consumers have been turning to domestic carmakers for their expanded EV adoption and plug-in hybrids. It is hard to imagine that GM’s sales in China were higher than in the U.S., but their population exponentially larger than here. Perhaps the only good news here is that GM’s restructuring for a turnaround is, at least for now, not going to require more cash outlays from General Motors.
Some analysts believe that GM should just exit China to avoid more losses, but GM is so far not willing to go that far. The company is still hoping to return to profitability in China in 2025. Year-to-date, GM’s U.S. profit of over $12 billion has dwarfed the $350-million-plus loss in China.
There is a lot more to the story, but for now it seems that GM’s China woes are not going to derail stock buyback ambitions. GM’s stock gain of 60% from a year ago have been driven by that $20 billion or so stock buyback commitment.
The company’s market cap of $58 billion looks and feels too small for the size and importance of the business and over $180 billion in sales. That said, shrinking the float and retiring shares can do that. GE is valued at just about 5-times expected earnings and its sub-1% dividend yield versus over 5% for Ford Motor Co. is because GM is choosing to use the money for buybacks rather than to pay dividends.
GM’s strategic case may look less clear today than back in June, but the stock is still up in the $53 range rather than the mid-$40s back in June. This is a picture that will likely have a clearer view in January and February for “new money” investors.
